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62 Results

The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2014-48 Maximo Camacho, Danilo Leiva-Leon
This paper examines the business cycle linkages that propagate industry-specific business cycle shocks throughout the economy in a way that (sometimes) generates aggregated cycles. The transmission of sectoral business cycles is modelled through a multivariate Markov-switching model, which is estimated by Gibbs sampling.

Multiple Fixed Effects in Binary Response Panel Data Models

Staff Working Paper 2014-17 Karyne B. Charbonneau
This paper considers the adaptability of estimation methods for binary response panel data models to multiple fixed effects. It is motivated by the gravity equation used in international trade, where important papers such as Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein (2008) use binary response models with fixed effects for both importing and exporting countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C25, F, F1, F14

Which Parametric Model for Conditional Skewness?

Staff Working Paper 2013-32 Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Roméo Tedongap
This paper addresses an existing gap in the developing literature on conditional skewness. We develop a simple procedure to evaluate parametric conditional skewness models. This procedure is based on regressing the realized skewness measures on model-implied conditional skewness values.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C51, G, G1, G12, G15

Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions

Staff Working Paper 2013-20 Nathan Porter, TengTeng Xu
Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization.

Why Do Shoppers Use Cash? Evidence from Shopping Diary Data

Staff Working Paper 2012-24 Naoki Wakamori, Angelika Welte
Recent studies find that cash remains a dominant payment choice for small-value transactions despite the prevalence of alternative means of payment such as debit and credit cards. For policy makers an important question is whether consumers truly prefer using cash or merchants restrict card usage.

International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia

Staff Working Paper 2010-14 Jesus Sierra
This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, F, F3, F31, F32, F34, G, G1, G11, G12, G15

Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models

Staff Working Paper 2009-31 Zhongfang He, John M. Maheu
A sequential Monte Carlo method for estimating GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks is proposed. Particle filtering techniques allow for fast and efficient updates of posterior quantities and forecasts in real time.

Futures Markets, Oil Prices and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account

Staff Working Paper 2008-48 Elif Arbatli
The intertemporal approach to the current account suggests modeling movements in the current account in a forward-looking, dynamic framework. In this framework, the current account reflects consumption smoothing of agents that lend and borrow from the rest of the world in the face of transitory shocks to income.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G13
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