Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy Staff Working Paper 1995-2 Alain DeSerres, Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Potential output
The Implications of the FTA and NAFTA for Canada and Mexico Technical Report No. 70 William White This report highlights the possible implications of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for Canada and Mexico. While it is still early, the initial evidence indicates that these treaties are contributing to a continental process of industrial restructuring that will contribute to higher living standards over time. The […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13
Fiscal Policy and External Balance in the G-7 Countries Technical Report No. 60 Stephen S. Poloz This paper assesses evidence, from the G-7 countries, of a link between a country's fiscal policy and its external balance, often referred to as the "twin deficits" phenomenon. It begins by reviewing the stylized facts, and then examines the theoretical case for such a link. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F4, F41, H, H6, H60
Some Implications of International Financial Integration for Canadian Public Policy Technical Report No. 57 William White The domestic capital markets of the major industrial countries have become more closely integrated over the last two decades, a by-product of regulatory and technological change. This paper considers some of the implications of those changes for Canadian public policy. While no profound implications are found for Canadian macroeconomic policies, which probably reflects a long […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, F, F3, F33, H, H3, H30
International Interest Rate Linkages and Monetary Policy: A Canadian Perspective Technical Report No. 52 John Murray, Ritha Khemani This paper examines the implications of increased international capital mobility and asset substitutability for domestic monetary policy in a small open economy such as Canada. Alternative definitions of international financial market integration are presented and tested in the context of two popular macro models. In the main, results suggest that interest rate relationships in Canada […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, F, F3, F33
A VAR Analysis of Economic Interdependence: Canada, the United States, and the Rest of the World Technical Report No. 46 John Kuszczak, John Murray The authors use vector autoregression (VAR) modelling techniques to examine the response of the domestic economy to foreign influences and to quantify some of the concepts and relationships relating to economic interdependence. Particular attention is given to the dynamic behaviour and interactions of the U.S. and Canadian economies over the past twenty years. Extensive empirical […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F15, F4, F41