June 12, 2024 Central banking: Navigating in a new world Remarks Tiff Macklem 30th Conference of Montréal: International Economic Forum of the Americas Montréal, Quebec Governor Tiff Macklem looks back on the lessons learned from post-pandemic inflation and discusses the challenges ahead. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, International topics, Monetary policy
The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding Staff Working Paper 2024-16 Michael Boutros, Andrej Mijakovic Coholder households simultaneously carry high-cost credit card debt and low-yield cash. We study the implications of this behavior for fiscal and monetary policy, finding that coholder households have smaller consumption responses in the short run but larger responses in the long run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, E6, E62, G, G5, G51
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals Staff Working Paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7
Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment Staff Analytical Note 2024-11 Tessa Devakos, Christopher Hajzler, Stephanie Houle, Craig Johnston, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Ron Rautu, Temel Taskin We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff Analytical Note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update Staff Analytical Note 2024-8 Erik Ens, Alexander Lam, Kurt See, Gabriela Galassi We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6
The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future Staff Discussion Paper 2024-3 Matteo Cacciatore, Bruno Feunou, Galip Kemal Ozhan The decline in safe real interest rates over the past three decades has reignited discussions on the neutral real interest rate, known as R*. We address the determinants and estimation methods of R*, as well as the factors influencing its decline and its future trajectory. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E6, E62
February 6, 2024 Monetary policy: It’s perfectly imperfect Speech summary Tiff Macklem Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec Governor Tiff Macklem speaks about the effectiveness—and limitations—of monetary policy. He highlights how raising and lowering the policy interest rate ultimately keeps inflation low, stable and predictable, despite significant shocks to the economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Housing, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Productivity
February 6, 2024 Monetary policy: The right tool for the right job Remarks Tiff Macklem Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how monetary policy is working to bring inflation down—and how it has worked to return inflation to target over the last 25 years. He also talks about the limits of monetary policy, and why the right focus is on controlling inflation in the medium term. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Housing, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Productivity
Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas Staff Working Paper 2023-62 Qi Li, Xu Zhang We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E52, R, R0, R00