January 30, 2020 How vulnerabilities like debt can affect interest rates Speech summary Paul Beaudry Laval University Québec, Québec Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry explains to students at Laval University why financial vulnerabilities—such as household debt—are important for the Bank of Canada when it sets interest rates. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation
January 30, 2020 Monetary Policy and Financial Vulnerabilities Remarks Paul Beaudry Université Laval Québec, Québec Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses how financial vulnerabilities present a challenge for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation
Managing GDP Tail Risk Staff Working Paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01
Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound Staff Working Paper 2020-2 Jasmina Arifovic, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle, Gauthier Vermandel This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, E, E3, E32, E5, E52
Monetary Policy and Government Debt Dynamics Without Commitment Staff Working Paper 2019-52 Dmitry Matveev I show that maturity considerations affect the optimal conduct of monetary and fiscal policy during a period of government debt reduction. I consider a New Keynesian model and study a dynamic game of monetary and fiscal policy authorities without commitment, characterizing the incentives that drive the choice of interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63
Furor over the Fed : Presidential Tweets and Central Bank Independence Staff Analytical Note 2019-33 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev We illustrate how market data can be informative about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Federal funds futures are private contracts that reflect investor’s expectations about monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58
Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt Staff Discussion Paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E6, E63, F, F0, F02, F1, F15, F5, F53, F6, H, O, O1, O11, O3, O33
December 5, 2019 Economic Progress Report: Charting Our Own Course Remarks Timothy Lane Ottawa Board of Trade Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Timothy Lane talks about the different monetary policy paths taken by Canada and the United States over the last decade and reviews the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
December 5, 2019 Canadian economy resilient despite global uncertainty Speech summary Timothy Lane Ottawa Board of Trade and Ottawa Business Journal Ottawa, Ontario Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady, Deputy Governor Timothy Lane explained that Canada’s economy remains resilient. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
The Economics of Cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin and Beyond Staff Working Paper 2019-40 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl Since the creation of Bitcoin in 2009, over 2,000 cryptocurrencies have been issued. We evaluate how well a cryptocurrency functions as a payment system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, L, L5