Measures of Aggregate Credit Conditions and Their Potential Use by Central Banks Staff Discussion Paper 2009-12 Alejandro García, Andrei Prokopiw Understanding the nature of credit risk has important implications for financial stability. Since authorities – notably, central banks – focus on risks that have systemic implications, it is crucial to develop ways to measure these risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12, G13
The Equity Premium and the Volatility Spread: The Role of Risk-Neutral Skewness Staff Working Paper 2009-20 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Roméo Tedongap We introduce the Homoscedastic Gamma [HG] model where the distribution of returns is characterized by its mean, variance and an independent skewness parameter under both measures. The model predicts that the spread between historical and risk-neutral volatilities is a function of the risk premium and of skewness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13
How Important Is Liquidity Risk for Sovereign Bond Risk Premia? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange Staff Working Paper 2008-47 Ron Alquist This paper uses the framework of arbitrage-pricing theory to study the relationship between liquidity risk and sovereign bond risk premia. The London Stock Exchange in the late 19th century is an ideal laboratory in which to test the proposition that liquidity risk affects the price of sovereign debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F34, F36, G, G1, G12, G15
McCallum Rules, Exchange Rates, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 2008-43 Antonio Diez de los Rios McCallum (1994a) proposes a monetary rule where policymakers have some tendency to resist rapid changes in exchange rates to explain the forward premium puzzle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads Staff Working Paper 2008-29 Jun Yang We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of corporate spreads using a no-arbitrage technique. Structural shocks are identified by a New-Keynesian model. Treasury bonds are priced in an affine model with time-varying risk premia. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G1, G12
Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads? Staff Working Paper 2008-25 Philipp Maier, Garima Vasishtha Since 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F34, G, G1, G12, G15
Information Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery - Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market Staff Working Paper 2008-22 George Jiang, Ingrid Lo, Adrien Verdelhan We examine large price changes, known as jumps, in the U.S. Treasury market. Using recently developed statistical tools, we identify price jumps in the 2-, 3-, 5-, 10-year notes and 30-year bond during the period of 2005-2006. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
On Portfolio Separation Theorems with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Attitudes towards Risk Staff Working Paper 2008-16 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Eric Ghysels, Eric Renault The early work of Tobin (1958) showed that portfolio allocation decisions can be reduced to a two stage process: first decide the relative allocation of assets across the risky assets, and second decide how to divide total wealth between the risky assets and the safe asset. This so called twofund separation relies on special assumptions on either returns or preferences. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, D, D5, D58, G, G1, G11, G12
Default Dependence: The Equity Default Relationship Staff Working Paper 2008-1 Stuart Turnbull, Jun Yang The paper examines three equity-based structural models to study the nonlinear relationship between equity and credit default swap (CDS) prices. These models differ in the specification of the default barrier. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13
Implications of Asymmetry Risk for Portfolio Analysis and Asset Pricing Staff Working Paper 2007-47 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Dietmar Leisen, Eric Renault Asymmetric shocks are common in markets; securities' payoffs are not normally distributed and exhibit skewness. This paper studies the portfolio holdings of heterogeneous agents with preferences over mean, variance and skewness, and derives equilibrium prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, D, D5, D58, G, G1, G11, G12