Volatility Forecasting when the Noise Variance Is Time-Varying Staff Working Paper 2013-48 Selma Chaker, Nour Meddahi This paper explores the volatility forecasting implications of a model in which the friction in high-frequency prices is related to the true underlying volatility. The contribution of this paper is to propose a framework under which the realized variance may improve volatility forecasting if the noise variance is related to the true return volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C51, C58
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation in Canada: An Update Staff Discussion Paper 2019-9 Helen Lao, Ceciline Steyn We provide an updated evaluation of the value of various measures of core inflation that could be used in the conduct of monetary policy. We find that the Bank of Canada’s current preferred measures of core inflation—CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common—continue to outperform alternative core measures across a range of criteria. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Asset-Liability Management: An Overview Staff Discussion Paper 2010-10 Yuliya Romanyuk Relevant literature on asset-liability management (ALM) is reviewed and different ALM approaches are discussed that may be of interest to the Bank of Canada for the purpose of modelling the Exchange Fund Account (EFA). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11
December 9, 2010 The Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffer: Insights for Canada Financial System Review - December 2010 David Xiao Chen, Ian Christensen Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
June 17, 2007 Trend Labour Supply in Canada: Implications of Demographic Shifts and the Increasing Labour Force Attachment of Women Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2007 Russell Barnett While demographic change has been an ongoing process in Canada, labour market implications of an aging population will become more acute in coming years. This article discusses the anticipated slowing in the growth of trend labour input over the coming decades with the aging of the baby boomers, declining fertility rates, and the stabilization of the labour force attachment of women. As the pool of labour shrinks, employers and governments will be looking for ways to address barriers to continued labour force participation and firms will have a greater incentive to find ways of improving labour productivity. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Potential output
The Fisher BCPI: The Bank of Canada’s New Commodity Price Index Staff Discussion Paper 2010-6 Ilan Kolet, Ryan Macdonald The prices of commodities produced in Canada have important implications for the performance of the Canadian economy and the conduct of monetary policy. The authors explain an important change to the methodology used to construct the Bank of Canada commodity price index (BCPI). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, E, E3
Redemption Runs in Canadian Corporate Bond Funds? Staff Analytical Note 2018-21 Rohan Arora Mutual funds employ a host of tools to manage redemption run risk. However, our results suggest that Canadian corporate bond funds may be vulnerable to redemption runs, especially when they are less liquid and when market volatility is high. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23
Risk Sharing in the Presence of a Public Good Staff Working Paper 2015-27 Josef Schroth This paper studies an economy where agents can spend resources on consuming a private good and on funding a public good. There is asymmetric information regarding agents’ relative preference for private versus public good consumption. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D86, E, E6, E62, H, H2, H21, H23, H7, H77
June 11, 2015 Financial System Review - June 2015 The Reports section of the Financial System Review examines selected issues of relevance to the Canadian and global financial systems. The June 2015 issue features two reports summarizing recent work by Bank of Canada staff on specific financial sector policies. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Detect Bubbles? Staff Working Paper 1996-11 Simon van Norden, Robert Vigfusson Work on testing for bubbles has caused much debate, much of which has focussed on methodology. Monte Carlo simulations reported in Evans (1991) showed that standard tests for unit roots and cointegration frequently reject the presence of bubbles even when such bubbles are present by construction. Evans referred to this problem as the pitfall of testing for bubbles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52