The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates Staff Working Paper 2016-28 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32
International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada Staff Working Paper 2014-43 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Abeer Reza, Kristina Hess The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by reducing policy rates to the effective lower bound. In order to provide further monetary stimulus, they subsequently conducted large-scale asset purchases, quadrupling their balance sheet in the process. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F42, F44
May 5, 2015 Liquid Markets for a Solid Economy Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses funding and market liquidity, and announces consultations on the Bank’s market operations and emergency lending frameworks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort
An Index of Financial Stress for Canada Staff Working Paper 2003-14 Mark Illing, Ying Liu The authors develop an index of financial stress for the Canadian financial system. Stress is defined as the force exerted on economic agents by uncertainty and changing expectations of loss in financial markets and institutions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G1, G10
Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target Staff Analytical Note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
December 14, 2009 Liquidity Standards in a Macroprudential Context Financial System Review - December 2009 Carol Ann Northcott, Mark Zelmer Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads Staff Working Paper 2012-27 Hui Chen, Yu Xu, Jun Yang We build a dynamic capital structure model to study the link between systematic risk exposure and debt maturity, as well as their joint impact on the term structure of credit spreads. Our model allows for time variation and lumpiness in the maturity structure. Relative to short-term debt, long-term debt is less prone to rollover risks, but its illiquidity raises the costs of financing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32, G33
Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity Staff Working Paper 2010-12 Fuchun Li, Pierre St-Amant This paper examines empirically the impact of financial stress on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Canada. The model used is a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if financial stress conditions cross a critical threshold. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, E, E5, E50, G, G0, G01
The Behaviour of Consumer Prices Across Provinces Staff Discussion Paper 2011-2 Gordon Wilkinson Measures of core inflation enable a central bank to distinguish price movements that are transitory and generated by non-monetary events from those that are more permanent and related to prior monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
The Evolution of Canada’s Global Export Market Share Staff Working Paper 2012-31 Daniel de Munnik, Jocelyn Jacob, Wesley Sze Following gains during the 1990s, Canada’s global market share of goods exports has declined markedly in recent years. In this regard, the constant market share analysis framework is used to decompose changes in Canada’s global market share into competitiveness and structural effects over the 1990‐2010 period, as well as to draw some comparisons to a number of other countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43