April 29, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—April 2026—Overview Before the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, the Canadian economy was evolving as expected. Since the war began, oil prices have risen, pushing inflation up, and the outlook has become more uncertain.
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—Risks With geopolitical uncertainty elevated and Canada’s trade agreement with the United States and Mexico under review, risks around the outlook are unusually high.
January 24, 2024 Monetary Policy Report – January 2024 Interest rates are working to moderate spending and inflation is easing gradually, though underlying pressures are proving persistent. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% through the first half of 2024, returning to target in 2025. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
December 15, 2021 Building on success Speech summary Tiff Macklem Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem speaks about the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy framework review and the agreement between the Government of Canada and the Bank to renew the 2 percent inflation target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
July 24, 2024 Monetary Policy Report—July 2024—Global economy The global economy is forecast to grow at around 3% over the projection horizon, in line with its current pace. Inflation remains above central bank targets.
July 31, 2019 Research Update - July 2019 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
November 1, 2022 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and the Economy Opening statement Tiff Macklem Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and the Economy Ottawa, Ontario Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
COVID-19’s impact on the financial health of Canadian businesses: An initial assessment Staff analytical note 2021-8 Timothy Grieder, Mikael Khan, Juan Ortega, Callie Symmers Despite COVID-19 challenges, bold policy measures in Canada have helped businesses manage cash flow pressures and kept insolvency filings low. But the impact of the pandemic has been uneven, and the financial health of some firms may further deteriorate over the next year. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, G32, G33, G38 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023 Staff analytical note 2023-5 Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment Staff analytical note 2025-14 Selam Abraham, Dany Brouillette, Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Mark Kim, Temel Taskin We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity