Pierre Duguay

Former Deputy Governor (2000 - 2010)

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Bio

Pierre Duguay served as a Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada from January 2000 until his retirement from the Bank in July 2010. As a member of the Bank’s Governing Council, he shared responsibility for decisions with respect to monetary policy and financial system stability, and for setting the strategic direction of the Bank.

Mr. Duguay joined the Bank in 1973 as an Economist in the Research Department. In 1978, he moved to the Department of Monetary and Financial Analysis as Senior Economist. He was appointed Deputy Chief of the Research Department in 1984, Chief of the Department of Monetary and Financial Analysis in 1987, Chief of the Research Department in 1991 and Adviser to the Governor in 1992.

Born in Verdun, Quebec, Mr. Duguay received a bachelor of economics degree from the Université du Québec à Montréal in 1971 and a master’s degree in economics from the Université de Montréal in 1974.


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Speeches

May 26, 2010

Senate Committee on National Finance

Remarks Pierre Duguay Senate Committee on National Finance Ottawa, Ontario
At year-end 2009, there were 1.8 billion bank notes in circulation, with a total value of $55.5 billion – approximately $1,630 per Canadian. The Bank of Canada is not responsible for coins. Decisions on coinage rest with the federal government, in particular, the Department of Finance, and with the Royal Canadian Mint.
Content Type(s): Press, Speeches
March 5, 2009

Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

Opening Statement Pierre Duguay House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario
As we have consistently emphasized, stabilization of the global financial system is a precondition for economic recovery, both globally and in Canada. To that end, policy-makers around the globe have acted aggressively and creatively by initiating a series of unprecedented actions aimed at stabilizing the global financial system.
Content Type(s): Press, Speeches
January 8, 2009

Financial Stability through Sound Risk Management

Remarks Pierre Duguay Risk Management Association, Toronto Chapter Toronto, Ontario
The extraordinary turmoil of 2007 and 2008 has brought to the fore many issues and challenges, most of which will be with us for some time as we deal with what has become the deepest financial crisis since the 1930s. Policy-makers around the world have taken bold and timely steps to deal with the financial instability and economic crisis, but it will take time for confidence to be restored and for markets to become fully functional again.
Content Type(s): Press, Speeches
August 27, 2007

The Bank of Canada's Research Agenda and the Future of Inflation Targeting

Remarks Pierre Duguay Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario
The last few weeks have been a time of turbulence in financial markets. In times such as these, it is common for people to focus on day-by-day or even hour-by-hour events, and to lose sight of the future. But tonight, I want to focus on the future; specifically, the future of inflation targeting in Canada.
Content Type(s): Press, Speeches

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Technical Reports

Les effets macro-économiques des déficits budgétaires : résultats d'un modèle de simulation

Technical Report No. 47 Pierre Duguay, Yves Rabeau
An increase in a government deficit can have two effects: short-term stimulation of aggregate demand and employment, and long-term contraction of potential output. In this paper, these effects are illustrated using a dynamic, macroeconomic simulation model. The model is not a forecasting tool; it is intended to bridge the gap between Keynesian and supply-side economics […]
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Technical Reports Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): H, H6, H60

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Bank Publications

Bank of Canada Review Article

November 19, 2015

Measuring Durable Goods and Housing Prices in the CPI: An Empirical Assessment

While the CPI is the most commonly used measure to track inflation, it is not fully consistent with a true cost-of-living index (COLI). Although the official treatment of durable goods and housing in the CPI represents an acceptable compromise in the current environment of low and stable inflation, Sabourin and Duguay suggest that it would be worthwhile to consider treating housing and durables in the same way and bringing the actual CPI closer to a COLI. This could be accomplished by employing an enhanced user-cost approach to calculate the imputed cost of the services provided by the use of durable goods or housing.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
December 16, 1999

Economic and Financial Developments to 16 February 2000: An Update to the Monetary Policy Report

Highlights * The pace of economic activity in the United States remains strong, exceeding earlier expectations. * With the stronger momentum of external demand, the Bank now expects Canada's real GDP growth in 2000 to be in the upper half of the 2.75 to 3.75 per cent range projected in the last Monetary Policy Report. * Core inflation was below expectations in November, partly because of price discounting on certain semi-durables. * The Bank expects core inflation to increase to 2 per cent in the first quarter of 2000. * Because of higher energy prices, the rate of increase in total CPI is expected to rise to close to 3 per cent early in the year. * Developments during the last three months underscore the risks to Canada's economic outlook highlighted in the last Report : stronger momentum of demand for Canadian output from both domestic and external sources and potential inflationary pressures in the United States. Information received since 14 January, when the update to our November Monetary Policy Report was completed, continues to point to a strengthening outlook for the world economy and for Canada. In the United States, real GDP again exceeded expectations—rising at an annual rate of 5.8 per cent in the fourth quarter. While some price and cost pressures are evident in the United States, strong productivity growth has thus far held unit labour costs down. Because of the rapid expansion of demand above the growth of potential capacity, however, and the associated inflation risks, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent on 2 February. Although trend inflation remains low in the industrial countries, a number of other major central banks have also raised their policy rates in the last couple of weeks because of concern about future inflation pressures, given strengthening demand. The buoyancy of external demand, particularly that coming from the United States, continues to show in our latest merchandise trade numbers. Export growth in November remained strong, with the overall trade balance in large surplus. World prices for our key primary commodities also continue to firm in response to rising global demand. On the domestic side, the latest information on demand and production points to continued robustness. Real GDP (at factor cost) rose 0.6 per cent (4.6 per cent year-over-year) in November, and employment continued to grow strongly through year-end and into January. Other indicators, including the latest data on the monetary aggregates, support this strong economic picture. The Bank now expects real GDP growth in 2000 to be near the top of the 2.75 to 3.75 per cent range projected in November. Our core measure of inflation was 1.6 per cent (year-over-year) in December, slightly below expectations, partly because of temporary discounts on certain items. Core inflation is still expected to move up to the midpoint of the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent target range in the first quarter. Over the same period, the total CPI will likely rise to close to 3 per cent because of the recent sharp step-up in energy prices but is still expected to come down towards the core rate during the course of 2000 as energy prices moderate. The Bank of Canada raised its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent on 3 February. The factors behind this decision included the strong momentum of demand in Canada from both external and domestic sources, the importance of approaching full capacity in a prudent way, and the risk of a spillover of potential inflation pressures from the United States.

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