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115 Results

The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications

Staff Working Paper 2013-1 Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Gee Hee Hong
We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes and average prices paid by consumers (“effective” prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many U.S. metropolitan areas.

Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media

Staff Working Paper 2023-23 Alistair Macaulay, Wenting Song
News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E32, E4, E43, E44, E5, G, G1

CBDC in the Market for Payments at the Point of Sale: Equilibrium Impact and Incumbent Responses

Staff Working Paper 2024-52 Walter Engert, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel
We simulate introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and consider consumer adoption, merchant acceptance and usage at the point of sale. Modest adoption frictions significantly inhibit CBDC market penetration along all three dimensions. Incumbent responses to restore pre-CBDC market shares are moderate to small and further reduce the impact of a CBDC.

Measuring Limits of Arbitrage in Fixed-Income Markets

Staff Working Paper 2017-44 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin
We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond.

What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?

Staff Working Paper 2014-42 Ron Alquist, Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios
Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures the value of storing crude oil over the borrowing period.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43

Government of Canada Securities in the Cash, Repo and Securities Lending Markets

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-4 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor
This paper documents the properties of Government of Canada securities in cash, repo and securities lending transactions over their life cycle. By tracking every security from issuance to maturity, we are able to highlight inter-linkages between the markets for cash and for specific securities.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23

Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy

Staff Working Paper 2023-60 Agostina Brinatti, Xing Guo
We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change.
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