Immigration and US Shelter Prices: The Role of Geographical and Immigrant Heterogeneity Staff Working Paper 2024-40 James Cabral, Walter Steingress The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J6, J61, R, R2, R23, R3, R31
From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2024-39 Felipe Alves, Giovanni L. Violante We explore the long-run effects of a monetary policy shock in a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model built on the micro evidence that job losses lead to persistently lower individual earnings through a combination of skill decay and abandonment of the labour force. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J24, J6, J64
Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US? Staff Working Paper 2024-38 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E6, E63
An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech Staff Working Paper 2024-37 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song, Sebastian Sotelo We study the distribution of political speech across U.S. firms. We develop a measure of political engagement based on firms’ communications (earning calls, regulatory filings, and social media) by training a large language model to identify statements that contain political opinions. Using these data, we document five facts about firms’ political engagement. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D6, D63, G, G4, G41, L, L1, L11, L2, L20
Consumer Credit Regulation and Lender Market Power Staff Working Paper 2024-36 Zachary Bethune, Joaquín Saldain, Eric R. Young We investigate the welfare consequences of consumer credit regulation in a dynamic, heterogeneous-agent model with endogenous lender market power. Lenders post credit offers and borrowers—some informed and others uninformed—apply for credit. We calibrate the model to match characteristics of the unsecured consumer credit market and use the calibrated model to evaluate interest rate ceilings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): D, D1, D15, D4, D43, D6, D60, D8, D83, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51
Public and Private Money Creation for Distributed Ledgers: Stablecoins, Tokenized Deposits, or Central Bank Digital Currencies? Staff Working Paper 2024-35 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet This paper explores the implications of introducing digital public and private monies (e.g. tokenized central bank digital currency [CBDC] or tokenized deposits) for stablecoins and illicit crypto transactions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58
Estimating the Portfolio-Balance Effects of the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program Staff Working Paper 2024-34 Antonio Diez de los Rios Using a novel dynamic portfolio balance model of the yield curve for Government of Canada bonds, I find that the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63
Household Food Inflation in Canada Staff Working Paper 2024-33 Olena Kostyshyna, Maude Ouellet We study food inflation rates for Canadian households during periods of low and high inflation from 2012Q4 to 2023Q4. Households experienced more varied inflation rates during the recent high inflation. Cumulative food inflation has been 2.2 percentage points higher for lower-income households than for highest-income households since the inflation surge. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E31, L, L8, L81
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment Staff Working Paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54
Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge Staff Working Paper 2024-31 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We study how price variation within a store changes with inflation, and whether households exploit these changes to reduce the burden of inflation. We find that price changes from discounts mitigated the inflation burden while cheapflation exacerbated it. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E31, L, L8, L81