Workshop on Commodity Price Issues

10 and 11 July 2006

NOTE: The papers listed here are reproduced as submitted by their respective authors, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of the Bank of Canada. Papers submitted by persons not in the employ of the Bank of Canada may be subject to the copyright policies of the submitters' organizations and/or countries, and therefore should not be reproduced in whole or in part without the permission of the author(s). Papers are presented in the language of the authors only.

"An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model for the Euro Area and the U.S. Economy" and Presentation
Gregory de Walque (National Bank of Belgium), Frank Smets (European Central Bank), and Raf Wouters (National Bank of Belgium)
Discussion, Nooman Rebei (Bank of Canada)

"Oil Shocks and U.S. External Adjustment" and Presentation
Martin Bodenstein, Chris Erceg and Luca Guerrieri (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
Discussion, Donald Coletti (Bank of Canada)

"Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy Rules and Welfare" and Presentation
Fiorella De Fiore (European Central Bank), Giovanni Lombardo (European Central Bank) and Viktors Stebunovs (Boston College)
Discussion, Bojan Markovic (Bank of England)

"Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?" and Presentation
Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan)
Discussion, Sharon Kozicki (Bank of Canada)

"Forecasting the Price of Crude Oil via Convenience Yield Predictions" and Presentation
Thomas Knetsch (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Discussion, Chris D'Souza (Bank of Canada)

"Risk-Adjusted Forecast of Oil Prices" and Presentation
Patrizio Pagano and Massimiliano Pisani (Banca d'Italia)
Discussion, Brian Torgunrud (Department of Finance of Canada)

"Are the Commodity Currencies an Exception to the Rule?" and Presentation
Yu-chin Chen (University of Washington) and Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard University)

"Modelling Oil Prices in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Free Entry" and Presentation
Ippei Fujiwara, and Naohisa Hirakata (Bank of Japan)
Discussion, Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

"Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment" and Presentation
Selim Elekdag (International Monetary Fund), René Lalonde (Bank of Canada), Douglas Laxton (International Monetary Fund), Dirk Muir (Bank of Canada), and Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Discussion, Riccardo Cristadoro (Banca d'Italia)

"Rapidly Rising Energy Prices: Does the Driver of Energy Market Imbalance Matter?" and Presentation
Jared Bebee and Ben Hunt (International Monetary Fund)
Discussion, Ricardo Mestre (European Central Bank)

"Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy" and Presentation
Juan Pablo Medina and Claudio Soto (Central Bank of Chile)
Discussion, Stephen Murchison (Bank of Canada)

"Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Volatility and Canada's Exchange Rate Regime" and Presentation
Russell Barnett , Rhys Mendes and Andrew Rennison (Bank of Canada)
Discussion, Felix Delbruck (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

"Welfare Effects of Commodity Price and Exchange Rate Volatilities in a Multi-Sector SOE Model"
Ali Dib (Bank of Canada)
Discussion, Juan Pablo Medina (Central Bank of Chile)