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768
result(s)
Mesures du taux d'inflation tendanciel
Staff Working Paper 1997-9
Thérèse Laflèche
In this paper, the author calculates new measures of the trend inflation rate using changes in the components of total CPI; the hypothesis is that extreme fluctuations in certain prices reflect temporary supply shocks rather than any basic price trend.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31
Lagging Productivity Growth in the Service Sector: Mismeasurement, Mismanagement or Misinformation?
Staff Working Paper 1997-6
Dinah Maclean
While the service sector has been growing rapidly as a share of total output, aggregate productivity growth has generally lagged behind that of the goods sector. In this report, the author assesses a range of explanations for lagging service sector productivity growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Productivity,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
L,
L8,
L80,
O,
O4,
O47
La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses
Staff Working Paper 1997-3
Jean-François Fillion,
André Léonard
This study, which draws on a variety of research on price dynamics in Canada, examines some hypotheses that might explain the poor quality of recent inflation forecasts based on the conventional Phillips curve.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
E,
E3,
E31
Fads or Bubbles?
Staff Working Paper 1997-2
Huntley Schaller,
Simon van Norden
This paper tests between fads and bubbles using a new empirical strategy (based on switching-regression econometrics) for distinguishing between competing asset-pricing models. By extending the Blanchard and Watson (1982) model, we show how stochastic bubbles can lead to regime-switching in stock market returns.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C40,
G,
G1,
G12
November 9, 1996
Canada and international financial institutions
International financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements, are important players in the global financial system. This article provides an overview of the major international financial institutions to which Canada belongs. The paper highlights their activities and the nature of Canada's involvement, including that of the Bank of Canada. Recent initiatives coming out of the Halifax and Lyon Summits to improve the effectiveness of international financial institutions are also noted.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
International topics
November 8, 1996
Money markets and central bank operations: Conference summary
This article summarizes the proceedings of a conference hosted by the Bank of Canada in November 1995. The conference examined the interaction between monetary policy operations and the money market. It provided an opportunity to assess current operations before the introduction of a large-value transfer system leads the Bank to change the techniques it uses to implement monetary policy on a day-to-day basis. From the Bank's perspective, the papers prepared externally provided some useful insights into recent innovations in money markets and their implications for the implementation of monetary policy. Meanwhile, the sessions devoted to the Bank's operations in financial markets were designed to provide market practitioners and academics with further insight into how the Bank operates in these markets.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Monetary policy implementation
The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 4. A Semi-Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output: Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter
Technical Report No. 77
Leo Butler
The level of potential output plays a central role in the Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). This report, the fourth in a series documenting QPM, describes a general method to measure potential output, as well as its implementation in the QPM system.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
E,
E2,
E23
The Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in Canada
Staff Working Paper 1996-12
Mario Lefebvre,
Stephen S. Poloz
This paper attempts to provide one interpretation of the broad regional economic history of Canada since the early 1970s. As the title of the paper suggests, we believe that, to a significant degree, regional diversity in economic performance reflects movements in Canada's terms of trade, which very frequently are tied to developments in world commodity markets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32
August 11, 1996
Real short-term interest rates and expected inflation: Measurement and interpretation
This article compares different measures of real short-term interest rates for Canada over the period from 1956 to 1995. A new measure for the expected real interest rate is constructed using a proxy for inflation expectations that is based on the properties of past inflation. The history of inflation in Canada suggests that the characteristics of inflation have changed considerably over time. Past inflation can be characterized by three different types of behaviour: an environment in which average inflation is low and shocks to inflation have only temporary effects; an environment of moderate inflation with more persistent disturbances; and an environment of drifting inflation in which shocks have permanent effects on the level of inflation. The proxy for inflation expectations uses a statistical model, called a Markov Switching Model, to take account of changes in the behaviour of inflation over time. It is found that uncertainty about the changing characteristics of inflation behaviour leads to uncertainty about estimates of inflation expectations and thus about measures of real interest rates. Target ranges for keeping inflation low should help reduce the uncertainty about inflation behaviour. The behaviour of inflation and interest rates suggests that the credibility of the Bank of Canada's inflation-control objectives is growing. This should reduce inflation uncertainty and lead to lower nominal interest rates over time.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates