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768 result(s)

The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation

Staff Working Paper 1997-10 Jim Day, Ron Lange
This paper examines the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future changes in inflation for Canada using a newly constructed par-value yield series. The main conclusion of the empirical work is that the slope of the nominal term structure from 1- to 5-year maturities is a reasonably good predictor of future changes in inflation over these horizons.

Lagging Productivity Growth in the Service Sector: Mismeasurement, Mismanagement or Misinformation?

Staff Working Paper 1997-6 Dinah Maclean
While the service sector has been growing rapidly as a share of total output, aggregate productivity growth has generally lagged behind that of the goods sector. In this report, the author assesses a range of explanations for lagging service sector productivity growth.

Fads or Bubbles?

Staff Working Paper 1997-2 Huntley Schaller, Simon van Norden
This paper tests between fads and bubbles using a new empirical strategy (based on switching-regression econometrics) for distinguishing between competing asset-pricing models. By extending the Blanchard and Watson (1982) model, we show how stochastic bubbles can lead to regime-switching in stock market returns.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12
November 9, 1996

Canada and international financial institutions

International financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements, are important players in the global financial system. This article provides an overview of the major international financial institutions to which Canada belongs. The paper highlights their activities and the nature of Canada's involvement, including that of the Bank of Canada. Recent initiatives coming out of the Halifax and Lyon Summits to improve the effectiveness of international financial institutions are also noted.
November 8, 1996

Money markets and central bank operations: Conference summary

This article summarizes the proceedings of a conference hosted by the Bank of Canada in November 1995. The conference examined the interaction between monetary policy operations and the money market. It provided an opportunity to assess current operations before the introduction of a large-value transfer system leads the Bank to change the techniques it uses to implement monetary policy on a day-to-day basis. From the Bank's perspective, the papers prepared externally provided some useful insights into recent innovations in money markets and their implications for the implementation of monetary policy. Meanwhile, the sessions devoted to the Bank's operations in financial markets were designed to provide market practitioners and academics with further insight into how the Bank operates in these markets.

The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 4. A Semi-Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output: Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter

Technical Report No. 77 Leo Butler
The level of potential output plays a central role in the Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). This report, the fourth in a series documenting QPM, describes a general method to measure potential output, as well as its implementation in the QPM system.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E2, E23

The Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in Canada

Staff Working Paper 1996-12 Mario Lefebvre, Stephen S. Poloz
This paper attempts to provide one interpretation of the broad regional economic history of Canada since the early 1970s. As the title of the paper suggests, we believe that, to a significant degree, regional diversity in economic performance reflects movements in Canada's terms of trade, which very frequently are tied to developments in world commodity markets.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32
August 11, 1996

Real short-term interest rates and expected inflation: Measurement and interpretation

This article compares different measures of real short-term interest rates for Canada over the period from 1956 to 1995. A new measure for the expected real interest rate is constructed using a proxy for inflation expectations that is based on the properties of past inflation. The history of inflation in Canada suggests that the characteristics of inflation have changed considerably over time. Past inflation can be characterized by three different types of behaviour: an environment in which average inflation is low and shocks to inflation have only temporary effects; an environment of moderate inflation with more persistent disturbances; and an environment of drifting inflation in which shocks have permanent effects on the level of inflation. The proxy for inflation expectations uses a statistical model, called a Markov Switching Model, to take account of changes in the behaviour of inflation over time. It is found that uncertainty about the changing characteristics of inflation behaviour leads to uncertainty about estimates of inflation expectations and thus about measures of real interest rates. Target ranges for keeping inflation low should help reduce the uncertainty about inflation behaviour. The behaviour of inflation and interest rates suggests that the credibility of the Bank of Canada's inflation-control objectives is growing. This should reduce inflation uncertainty and lead to lower nominal interest rates over time.
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