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768
result(s)
On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting
Staff Working Paper 2001-3
Kevin Clinton
Two aspects of the recent monetary history of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand stand out: the sensitivity of their dollars to prices of resource-based commodities, and inflation targeting. This paper explores various aspects of these phenomena.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Inflation targets,
International topics,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F42
Core Inflation
Technical Report No. 89
Seamus Hogan,
Marianne Johnson,
Thérèse Laflèche
The Bank of Canada uses core CPI inflation, the year-over-year rate of change of the consumer price index excluding food, energy, and the effects of changes in indirect taxes, as the operational guide for monetary policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31
The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables
Staff Working Paper 2000-23
Nikola Gradojevic,
Jing Yang
Artificial neural networks (ANN) are employed for high-frequency Canada/U.S. dollar exchange rate forecasting. ANN outperform random walk and linear models in a number of recursive out-of- sample forecasts.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C45,
F,
F3,
F31
November 16, 2000
Credit Derivatives
Credit derivatives are a useful tool for lenders who want to reduce their exposure to a particular borrower but are unwilling to sell their claims on that borrower. Without actually transferring ownership of the underlying assets, these contracts transfer risk from one counterparty to another. Commercial banks are the major participants in this growing market, using these transactions to diversify their portfolios of loans and other risky assets. The authors examine the size and workings of this relatively new market and discuss the potential of these transactions for distorting existing incentives for risk management and risk monitoring.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
November 15, 2000
Recent Performance of the Canadian Economy: A Regional View
This article first outlines the activities of the Bank's regional offices and looks at how regional economic analysis fits into the Bank's decision-making process. The changing role of the regional offices in communications and in information gathering is examined, focusing on the quarterly surveys of industries and associations. The second section reviews, from a regional perspective, economic developments since the Asian crisis and future prospects.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Regional economic developments
November 13, 2000
Seminar Summary: Price Stability and the Long-Run Target for Monetary Policy
On 8 and 9 June 2000, the Bank held a seminar to examine some key issues affecting the upcoming decision on Canada's inflation-control target for the period after 2001. The main issues covered at the seminar were the extent of downward nominal-wage rigidity and its implications for employment as well as the relative merits of price-level targeting versus inflation targeting. Another critical question that was discussed was how to balance the evidence on all the relevant issues in order to develop an overall view on the appropriate long-run target. The author gives a brief overview of the seminar followed by detailed summaries of individual papers.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation targets
August 14, 2000
Approaches to Current Stock Market Valuations
The increase in North American stock prices in 1999 and early 2000 has generated interest in the valuation assumptions that would make these price levels sustainable. Here, commonly used valuation techniques are applied to stock markets in Canada and the United States. For the comparative yield approach, real interest rates (rather than nominal rates) are preferred as the comparator of choice to yields on stock market indexes. The spreads between real interest rates and stock market yields have generally increased over the last two years. The dividend-discount model (DDM) approach provides an analytic linkage between the equity-risk premium and the expected growth of dividends. It suggests that market values (measured at the end of February 2000) could be sustained only by rapid growth of dividends in the future or by the continued assumption of an uncharacteristically low risk premium on equity. The spectacular rise in the value of technology stocks in 1999 is noted (Chart 4), and then the valuation measures for the Canadian stock market excluding the technology sector are examined. When this is done with the comparative yield approach, yield spreads are slightly lower, and for the DDM approach, one does not need to assume as high a growth of dividends or as low a risk premium to validate market valuations. Two effects of the "new economy" on the stock market are noted. One is the lowering of dividend yields, as new-economy technology companies tend to have a high reinvestment rate and a low dividend payout rate. Another relates to the potential for a higher track for the economy's productivity growth, which would mean that higher-than-historical assumptions about future earnings growth would be more plausible. Several explanations for the decline in risk premiums on equity are considered. While short-term volatility in the stock market has, if anything, increased in recent years, low inflation and improved economic performance, along with demographics and investor preferences, may have contributed to a decline in the risk premium demanded by investors. A scenario of rapid growth of dividends in the near term slowing to historical norms in the longer term is examined. While this approach can go partway towards explaining high stock market valuations, it requires assumptions that are outside historical experience.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
Employment Effects Of Nominal-Wage Rigidity: An Examination Using Wage-Settlements Data
Staff Working Paper 2000-14
Umar Faruqui
The argument advocating a moderate level of inflation based on the downward nominal-wage rigidity (DNWR) hypothesis rests on three factors: its presence, extent, and negative impact in the labour market. This paper focuses on the employment effect of DNWR.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C23,
J,
J2,
J23,
J3,
J30
Price Stickiness, Inflation, and Output Dynamics: A Cross-Country Analysis
Staff Working Paper 2000-12
Hashmat Khan
The sticky-price model of aggregate fluctuations implies that countries with high trend inflation rates should exhibit less-persistent output fluctuations than countries with low trend inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32