Staff Discussion Papers
In recent years, the Canadian economy has been affected by strong movements in relative prices brought about by the surging costs of energy and non-energy commodities, with significant implications for the terms of trade, the exchange rate, and the allocation of resources across Canadian sectors and regions.
Staff Working Papers
Using an error-correction model (ECM) framework, the authors attempt to quantify the degree of disequilibrium in Canadian housing stock over the period 1961–2008 for the national aggregate and over 1981–2008 for the provinces.
Computing the Accuracy of Complex Non-Random Sampling Methods: The Case of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook SurveyA number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial.
The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth.
The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve: An Assessment of Competing Specifications for the United StatesInflation forecasting is fundamental to monetary policy. In practice, however, economists are faced with competing goals: accuracy and theoretical consistency.
The authors identify the fundamentals behind the dynamics of the U.S. stock market over the past 30 years. They specify a structural vector-error-correction model following the methodology of King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991).
The relative productivity gap between Canada and the United States is a controversial subject matter. One argument especially contentious in this debate stems from the belief that the gradual depreciation of the Canadian dollar over the last 20 years has been one of the determinants of the productivity gap.