E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• The Role of Debt and Equity Finance over the Business Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2006-45 Francisco Covas, Wouter den Haan

  The authors show that debt and equity issuance are procyclical for most listed U.S. firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E3, G, G1, G3

• ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model

  Technical Report No. 97 Stephen Murchison, Andrew Rennison

  The authors provide a detailed technical description of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), which replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, F, F4, F41

• Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model

  Staff Working Paper 2006-42 Céline Gauthier, Fuchun Li

  The authors estimate a small monthly macroeconometric model (BEAM, for bonds, equity, and money) of the Canadian economy built around three cointegrating relationships linking financial and real variables over the 1975–2002 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4

• An Optimized Monetary Policy Rule for ToTEM

  Staff Working Paper 2006-41 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Amy Corbett, Patrick Perrier

  The authors propose a monetary policy rule for the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), the Bank of Canada's new projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

• Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2006-39 Jean-Marie Dufour, David Tessier

  The authors examine simultaneously the causal links connecting monetary policy variables, real activity, and stock returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C3, C32, C5, C51, C53, E, E5, E52

• Survey of Price-Setting Behaviour of Canadian Companies

  Staff Working Paper 2006-35 David Amirault, Carolyn Kwan, Gordon Wilkinson

  In many mainstream macroeconomic models, sticky prices play an important role in explaining the effects of monetary policy on the economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, E, E3, E30, L, L1, L11

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Non-Zero Trend Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2006-34 Robert Amano, Steve Ambler, Nooman Rebei

  The authors study the macroeconomic effects of non-zero trend inflation in a simple dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with sticky prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32

• Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?

  Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

• Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2006-25 Greg Tkacz, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E4

• Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related?

  Staff Working Paper 2006-24 Partha Chatterjee, Malik Shukayev

  The empirical relationship between the average growth rate and the volatility of growth rates, both over time and across countries, has important policy implications, which depend critically on the sign of the relationship.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32