Staff research

• Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-14 Calista Cheung, Luke Frymire, Lise Pichette

  We investigate whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey can provide useful signals for the output gap.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3

• Towards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income Process

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-13 Iskander Karibzhanov

  How might one simulate a million realistic income paths and compute their statistical moments in under a second? Using CUDA-based methods to estimate the Canadian earnings process, I find that the distribution of labour income growth is sharply peaked with heavy tails—similar to that in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J3, J31

• Safe Payments

  Staff Working Paper 2020-53 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang, Yu Zhu

  In a cashless economy, would the private sector invest in the optimal level of safety in a deposit-based payment system? In general, because of externalities, the answer is no. While the private sector could over- or under-invest in safety, the government can use taxes or subsidies to correct private incentives.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50, G, G2, G21

• 2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-12 James Bootsma, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Christopher Hajzler, Argyn Toktamyssov

  This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2020-52 Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou, Kevin Moran

  We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E31
• November 30, 2020

  Research Update - November 2020

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings

  Staff Working Paper 2020-51 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See

  The impact of COVID-19 on Canadian households’ debt and unplanned savings varies by household income. Low-income and high-income households accrued unplanned savings, while middle-income households tended to accumulate more debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, G, G5, G51

• A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation

  Staff Working Paper 2020-50 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  We study the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model that has silent transmission of the virus. We find that rational behaviour strongly diminishes the severity of the epidemic but worsens the economic recession. We also find that the detection and isolation of not only symptomatic individuals but also those who are infected and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic can reduce the severity of the recession caused by the pandemic.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, H, H0, I, I1

• Has the Inflation Process Changed? Selective Review of Recent Research on Inflation Dynamics

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-11 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, James (Jim) C. MacGee

  From 2011 to 2019, inflation in Canada and advanced economies usually registered below inflation targets, spurring the debate on whether the inflation process has changed. This paper highlights emerging questions that will influence the conduct of monetary policy in Canada in the near term.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52

• Optimal Quantitative Easing in a Monetary Union

  Staff Working Paper 2020-49 Serdar Kabaca, Renske Maas, Kostas Mavromatis, Romanos Priftis

  How should a central bank conduct quantitative easing (QE) in a monetary union when regions differ in their size and portfolio characteristics? Optimal QE policy suggests allocating greater purchases from the region that faces stronger portfolio frictions, and not necessarily according to each region’s size.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58