Staff discussion papers
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Public Policy Objectives and the Next Generation of CPA Systems: An Analytical Framework
The payments landscape in Canada is rapidly changing and will continue to evolve, fuelled by strong and persistent drivers. In Canada, the Canadian Payments Association (CPA) is on a path to modernize Canada’s core payment systems. -
Decomposing Movements in U.S. Non-Energy Import Market Shares
Country market shares of U.S. non-energy imports have changed considerably since 2002, with varying volatility across three subperiods: pre-crisis (2002–07), crisis (2007–09) and post-crisis (2009–14). In this paper, we analyze market shares for four main trading partners of the United States (Canada, Mexico, China and Japan). -
2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey Results
As the sole issuer of bank notes, the Bank of Canada conducts methods-of-payment (MOP) surveys to obtain a detailed and representative snapshot of Canadian payment choices, with a focus on cash usage. -
Sluggish Exports in Advanced Economies: How Much Is Due to Demand?
Exports in advanced economies have been relatively sluggish since 2011, growing at a much slower pace than observed before the global financial crisis. -
Changing Labour Market Participation Since the Great Recession: A Regional Perspective
This paper discusses broad trends in labour force participation and part-time employment across different age groups since the Great Recession and uses provincial data to identify changes related to population aging, cyclical effects and other factors. -
Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada: The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework
Estimating potential output and the output gap - the difference between actual output and its potential - is important for the proper conduct of monetary policy. However, the measurement and interpretation of potential output, and hence the output gap, is fraught with uncertainty, since it is unobservable. -
Why Do Canadian Firms Invest and Operate Abroad? Implications for Canadian Exports
Canadian foreign direct investment and sales of Canadian multinational firms’ operations abroad, particularly in the manufacturing industry and in the United States, have accelerated sharply over the past decade. -
Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective
This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making. -
The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada
A measure of the neutral policy interest rate can be used to gauge the stance of monetary policy. We define the neutral rate as the real policy rate consistent with output at its potential level and inflation equal to target after the effects of all cyclical shocks have dissipated.