F3 - International Finance

• News-Driven International Credit Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan

  This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21

• Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates?

  Staff Working Paper 2021-62 Jin Cao, Valeriya Dinger, Tomás Gómez, Zuzana Gric, Martin Hodula, Alejandro Jara, Ragnar Juelsrud, Karolis Liaudinskas, Simona Malovaná, Yaz Terajima

  Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F34, F4, F42, G, G2, G21, G28

• The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2021-61 David Xiao Chen, Christian Friedrich

  We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G2, G21, G28

• Updated Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-16 Karim McDaniels, Nico Palesch, Sanjam Suri, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh

  We update the Bank of Canada’s credit rating methodology for sovereigns, including our approach to assessing their fiscal position and monetary policy flexibility. We also explicitly consider climate-related factors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G2, G24, G28, G3, G32

• Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock

  Staff Working Paper 2021-48 Ingomar Krohn, Philippe Mueller, Paul Whelan

  We document a new empirical finding in the foreign exchange market: currency returns show systematic reversals around the benchmark fixings. Specifically, the US dollar, on average, appreciates in the hours before fixes and depreciates after fixes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15

• Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter

  Staff Working Paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia

  Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31

• BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2021?

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-15 David Beers, Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh

  The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15