Exchange rates

• The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-15 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin

  In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31
• November 16, 2016

  Follow the Money: A Canadian Perspective on Financial Globalization

  Remarks Timothy Lane Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) Waterloo, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses the benefits and challenges of international capital mobility.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, Financial markets, International financial markets, Market structure and pricing, Trade integration
• November 8, 2016

  Wood, Wheat, Wheels and the Web: Historical Pivots and Future Prospects for Canadian Exports

  Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Atlantic Institute for Market Studies Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the historical evolution and future prospects for Canadian exports.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Exchange rates, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration

• On the Value of Virtual Currencies

  Staff Working Paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt

  This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1

• Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark

  We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
• July 13, 2016

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Carolyn A. Wilkins, Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments

• Ce que révèle une analyse sectorielle des dynamiques récentes de l’inflation au Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-7 Laurence Savoie-Chabot

  Decomposing total inflation in Canada as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) into its key macroeconomic factors, as presented in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, is an interesting exercise that shows how the exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices and the output gap have influenced the evolution of the total inflation rate over time. This aggregate approach, however, may mask important sectoral changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard

  Staff Working Paper 2016-14 Warren E. Weber

  This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates, Financial services, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58

• Predictive Ability of Commodity Prices for the Canadian Dollar

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-2 Kimberly Berg, Pierre Guérin, Yuko Imura

  Recent sharp declines in commodity prices and the simultaneous depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) have rekindled an interest in the relationship between commodity prices and the CAD-USD exchange rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates

• Limits to Arbitrage and Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-4 James Pinnington, Maral Shamloo

  We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15