E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

• Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni

  Staff Working Paper 2004-46 Charles St-Arnaud

  The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E23, E3, E32

• The Transmission of World Shocks to Emerging-Market Countries: An Empirical Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2004-44 Brigitte Desroches

  The first step in designing effective policies to stabilize an economy is to understand business cycles. No country is isolated from the world economy and external shocks are becoming increasingly important.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E32, E6, E61, F, F0, F02

• Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate

  Staff Working Paper 2004-43 Ian Christensen, Christopher Reid, Frédéric Dion

  According to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E43

• Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Small Open Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2004-41 Nooman Rebei

  The author studies the macroeconomic consequences of discretionary changes in the fiscal policy instruments for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62

• The U.S. New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Empirical Assessment

  Staff Working Paper 2004-35 Alain Guay, Florian Pelgrin

  The authors examine the evidence presented by Galí and Gertler (1999) and Galí, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2001, 2003) that the inflation dynamics in the United States can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31

• Investment, Private Information, and Social Learning: A Case Study of the Semiconductor Industry

  Staff Working Paper 2004-32 Rose Cunningham

  Social learning models of investment provide an interesting explanation for sudden changes in investment behaviour.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, E, E3, E32, L, L6, L63

• The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve: An Assessment of Competing Specifications for the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2004-31 David Dupuis

  Inflation forecasting is fundamental to monetary policy. In practice, however, economists are faced with competing goals: accuracy and theoretical consistency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation

  Staff Working Paper 2004-21 Jeannine Bailliu, Eiji Fujii

  This paper investigates the question of whether a transition to a low-inflation environment, induced by a shift in monetary policy, results in a decline in the degree of pass-through of exchange rate movements to consumer prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, F, F3, F31

• The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment

  Staff Working Paper 2004-15 Monica Martin, Cristiano Papile

  Since the autumn of 1997, the Bank of Canada's regional offices (located in Halifax, Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver) have conducted consultations with businesses across Canada on a quarterly basis. These consultations are now referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E66

• Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods

  Staff Working Paper 2004-11 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian

  The authors use simple new finite-sample methods to test the empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31