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2334
result(s)
Relative Price Movements and Labour Productivity in Canada: A VAR Analysis
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-5
Michael Dolega,
David Dupuis,
Lise Pichette
In recent years, the Canadian economy has been affected by strong movements in relative prices brought about by the surging costs of energy and non-energy commodities, with significant implications for the terms of trade, the exchange rate, and the allocation of resources across Canadian sectors and regions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Productivity,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E23,
E24,
O,
O4,
O47
Prospects for Global Current Account Rebalancing
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-4
Kimberly Beaton,
Carlos De Resende,
René Lalonde,
Stephen Snudden
The authors use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model, a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking system (the BoC-GEM-FIN), to study the evolution of global current account balances following the recent global financial crisis.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Balance of payments and components,
Business fluctuations and cycles,
International topics,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
F,
F0,
F01,
F3,
F32
Le pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-3
Claudia Godbout,
Jocelyn Jacob
The forecast of world economic growth plays a key role in the conduct of Canadian monetary policy. In this context, the authors study the usefulness of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in predicting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China, as well as in the world economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E37,
F,
F4,
F47
On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment
Staff Working Paper 2010-10
Nikita Perevalov,
Philipp Maier
The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP and inflation), this study evaluates forecasting performance at disaggregated levels to examine the source of the improved forecasting accuracy, relative to a simple autoregressive model. We use the latest revision of over 100 U.S. time series over the period 1974-2009 (monthly and quarterly data).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C50,
C53,
E,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E47
Alternative Optimized Monetary Policy Rules in Multi-Sector Small Open Economies: The Role of Real Rigidities
Staff Working Paper 2010-9
Carlos De Resende,
Ali Dib,
Maral Kichian
Inflation-targeting central banks around the world often state their inflation objectives with regard to the consumer price index (CPI). Yet the literature on optimal monetary policy based on models with nominal rigidities and more than one sector suggests that CPI inflation is not always the best choice from a social welfare perspective.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Inflation: costs and benefits,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F4
Market Expectations and Option Prices: Evidence for the Can$/US$ Exchange Rate
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-2
Alejandro García,
Andrei Prokopiw
Security prices contain valuable information that can be used to make a wide variety of economic decisions. To extract this information, a model is required that relates market prices to the desired information, and that ideally can be implemented using timely and low-cost methods.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Exchange rates,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C0,
C00,
C02,
G,
G1,
G13
March 9, 2010
Inflation Expectations and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Evidence and Experience
This article explores the role of inflation expectations in the conduct of monetary policy. It reviews the various measures of inflation expectations used by central banks, including surveys and market-based indicators, and considers their advantages and disadvantages. It examines the critical role of inflation expectations in the framework that central banks use to understand, forecast, and control inflation. It also looks at their role as an indicator of central bank credibility. The behaviour of inflation expectations over the past two years is analyzed and policy conclusions are offered.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy implementation
March 9, 2010
Monetary Policy Rules in an Uncertain Environment
This article examines recent research on the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules: from simple rules to fully optimal monetary policy under commitment. The authors explain why uncertainty matters in the design of monetary policy rules and provide quantitative examples from the recent literature. They also present results for several policy rules in ToTEM, the Bank of Canada's main model for projection and analysis, including rules that respond to price level, rather than to inflation.
March 9, 2010
An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada
Many important economic variables are subject to revision. This article explains how, when, and why such revisions occur; how revisions to Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) compare with GDP revisions in some other countries; which GDP components are subject to the largest revisions; and how data revisions can affect policy decisions. The author finds that revisions to Canadian GDP tend to be smaller, on average, than those of some other countries, and that among the GDP components, exports and imports are most heavily revised.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Monetary policy and uncertainty