Posts
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December 23, 2025
Publication: Summary of Deliberations
13:30 (ET)
A summary of monetary policy deliberations by the Governing Council for the policy decision that was announced two weeks earlier. -
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December 10, 2025
Interest Rate Announcement
09:45 (ET)
On eight scheduled dates each year, the Bank of Canada announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release explaining the factors behind the decision. -
Unintended consequences of liquidity regulation
When a bank holds a lot of safe assets, it is well situated to deal with funding stress. But when all banks hold a lot of safe assets, a pecuniary externality implies that their (wholesale) funding costs increase. This reduces banks’ ability to hold capital buffers and thus, paradoxically, increases the frequency of funding stress. -
Modelling the Sovereign Debt Strategy: A Practical Primer
We provide a primer on the role of debt modelling in informing the sovereign debt issuance strategy and discuss how specific challenges faced by debt managers can influence model design decisions. These insights are supported by our experiences using the Canadian Debt Strategy Model to guide policy decisions. -
Anticipating changes in bank capital buffer requirements
Time-varying capital buffer requirements are a powerful tool that allow bank regulators to avoid severe financial stress without the cost of imposing very high levels of capital. However, this tool is only effective if banks understand how it is used. I present a model that banks and financial market participants can use to anticipate how time-varying capital buffer requirements change over time. -
Do Firms’ Sales Expectations Hit the Mark? Evidence from the Business Leaders’ Pulse
We analyze Canadian data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse, examining firms’ sales growth expectations. We find that expected growth predicts outcomes, uncertainty influences forecast errors and revisions, and firms with weak past performance anticipate and experience weaker future growth. These results highlight the survey’s value for understanding business expectations. -
AI Agents for Cash Management in Payment Systems
Can artificial intelligence (AI) think and act like a cash manager? In this paper we explore how generative AI agents can help manage liquidity, prioritize payments and optimize efficiency in real-time gross settlement systems.