Monetary policy and uncertainty

• Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-8 Lin Chen, Stephanie Houle

  We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C82, E, E3, E37

• Introducing the Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-1 Annick Demers, Tamara Gomes, Stephane Gignac

  The Market Participants Survey (MPS) gathers financial market participants’ expectations for key macroeconomic and financial variables and for monetary policy. This staff analytical note describes the MPS’s objectives and main features, its process and design, and how Bank of Canada staff use the results.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G12, G14
• December 8, 2022

  Economic progress report: More transparency in uncertain times

  Remarks Sharon Kozicki Urban Development Institute of Quebec Montréal, Quebec

  Speaking a day after the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses the current state of the economy and talks about how the Bank is improving both its use of data and the way we communicate with Canadians.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy and uncertainty
• December 8, 2022

  Helping Canadians better understand our decisions

  Speech summary Sharon Kozicki Urban Development Institute of Quebec Montréal, Quebec

  Speaking a day after the Bank of Canada decided to raise our policy interest rate, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses the current state of the economy. She also talks about how we are improving our transparency with Canadians.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy and uncertainty
• October 6, 2022

  What’s happening to inflation and why it matters

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how inflation has evolved in recent months and explains what the Bank is watching as it takes action to return inflation to target.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
• October 6, 2022

  Restoring price stability for all Canadians

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Governor Tiff Macklem explains how inflation in Canada reflects more and more what’s happening with domestic demand and what the Bank is watching as it works to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector

• Looking Through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation Expectations: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma

  Staff Working Paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri

  Why might central banks want to look through supply-driven inflation sometimes and pivot away at other times? When does a change in monetary policy stance help anchor expectations? In this paper we present a simple environment that helps clarify these issues by offering an optimal policy perspective on recent central bank behaviour.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65

• Sectoral Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda

  We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C55, E, E3, E32, E4, E44

• The Business Leaders’ Pulse—An Online Business Survey

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-14 Tony Chernis, Chris D'Souza, Kevin MacLean, Tasha Reader, Joshua Slive, Farrukh Suvankulov

  This paper introduces the Business Leaders’ Pulse, a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision making by asking firms about their sales and employment growth expectations, the risks to their business outlook, and topical questions that address specific information needs of the Bank.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32
• June 2, 2022

  Economic progress report: Navigating a high inflation environment

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry Gatineau Chamber of Commerce Gatineau, Quebec

  Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the importance of keeping inflation expectations well anchored to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments