Trade Integration

• The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau

  This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68

• Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains

  Staff Working Paper 2019-19 Yuko Imura

  This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F13, F4, F41
• May 6, 2019

  Risk Sharing, Flexibility and the Future of Mortgages

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Credit Union Association and Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba

  Governor Poloz talks about Canada’s housing market and how the mortgage market could evolve to give Canadians more choice, make the economy more flexible and lower the level of financial system risk.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Financial services, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration

• The Trade War in Numbers

  Staff Working Paper 2018-57 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry

  We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to isolate and quantify the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes on the United States and the global economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68

• Market Size and Entry in International Trade: Product Versus Firm Fixed Costs

  Staff Working Paper 2018-43 Walter Steingress

  This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope).

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, F2, F23
• September 6, 2018

  An Update on Canada’s Economic Resilience

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership Regina, Saskatchewan

  Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report and Governing Council’s deliberations leading to yesterday’s policy rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• Estimating the Impacts of Tariff Changes: Two Illustrative Scenarios

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-29 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry

  We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to construct a quantitative Ricardian framework similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) to isolate and estimate the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68

• Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913

  Staff Working Paper 2018-42 Ian Keay, Patrick Alexander

  In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71

• Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-28 José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Jonathan Swarbrick

  We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-25 Dany Brouillette, José Dorich, Chris D'Souza, Adrienne Gagnon, Claudia Godbout

  This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17