Trade integration

• Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-18 Alexander Lam

  US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, F, F1, F10, F13, F14
• June 18, 2025

  The impact of US trade policy on jobs and inflation in Canada

  Remarks Tiff Macklem St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the trade conflict with the United States has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is critical for jobs and growth, and important for prices and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• June 18, 2025

  Trade, jobs and inflation

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the trade conflict with the United States and how it is has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is important for jobs, growth and price stability in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• June 5, 2025

  Reaching out for a clearer view of the economy

  Speech summary Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario

  Speaking a day after we decided to keep the policy interest rate at 2.75%, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how we make better decisions by looking at a variety of data and talking with Canadians.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
• June 5, 2025

  Talking to Canadians: How real-world insights shape monetary policy

  Remarks Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about how the Bank of Canada is using non-traditional data to better inform its monetary policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration

• The Mutable Geography of Firms’ International Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2025-11 Lu Han

  Exporters frequently change their market destinations. This paper introduces a new approach to identifying the drivers of these decisions over time. Analysis of customs data from China and the UK shows most changes are driven by demand rather than supply-related shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, L, L1, L11
• March 20, 2025

  Navigating tariff uncertainty

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the US trade conflict and uncertainty is hurting business and consumer confidence. He also outlines what the Bank is doing to ensure the trade conflict doesn’t cause widespread or persistent inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• March 20, 2025

  Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the Canadian economy

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how uncertainty about the trade war with the United States has shaken businesses and consumer confidence. He also reiterates that the Bank of Canada must ensure that high prices from tariffs do not lead to ongoing inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
• February 21, 2025

  Trade conflict: What can the Bank of Canada do?

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how a trade conflict would affect the Canadian economy and monetary policy. He also outlines what the Bank of Canada is focusing on as it renews its monetary policy framework.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
• February 21, 2025

  Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the potential impact of a trade conflict with the United States. He also launches the review of the Bank’s monetary policy framework.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration