Monetary policy communications
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November 12, 2020
Helping the economy after the COVID‑19 pandemic
The pandemic won’t last forever. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. -
November 12, 2020
Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. -
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach
How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations? -
Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound
This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available. -
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Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty. -
Readability and the Bank of Canada
In this note, I assess the readability of Bank of Canada publications using a formula commonly used for this type of evaluation. I find that Bank publications are more difficult to read than the media articles and other content our target audiences likely consume. This suggests that more simple writing can help the Bank better meet its communication objectives. -
How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?
We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. -
The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements
In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time.
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