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CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model

The Bank of Canada’s current suite of models faces challenges in addressing network effects that integrate household and firm-level heterogeneity and their behaviours. We develop CANVAS, a Canadian behavioural agent-based model to contribute to the Bank’s next-generation modelling effort. CANVAS improves forecasting performance and expands capacity for model-based scenario analysis.

Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics

Staff Working Paper 2022-50 Martin Harding, Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high.

Regulatory Requirements of Banks and Arbitrage in the Post-Crisis Federal Funds Market

Staff Working Paper 2022-48 Rodney J. Garratt, Sofia Priazhkina
This paper explains the nature of interest rates in the U.S. federal funds market after the 2007-09 financial crisis. We build a model of the over-the-counter lending market that incorporates new aspects of the financial system: abundance of liquidity, different regulatory standards for banks, and arbitrage opportunities created by limited access to the facility granting interest on excess reserves.

Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market

Staff Analytical Note 2022-18 Alexander Lam
Canada’s labour market is tight but beginning to ease. Unemployment will likely rise in turn, but the economy can avoid a recessionary surge given current conditions. Higher unemployment would nonetheless be material, especially for those directly impacted.
November 10, 2022

Getting back to stable prices and a balanced jobs market

Speech summary Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the relationship between inflation and employment and how the Bank of Canada is working to cool an overheated economy.
November 10, 2022

Restoring labour market balance and price stability

Remarks Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem outlines the link between high inflation and tight labour markets. He explains how the Bank is working to rebalance the labour market and discusses how structural changes may influence the supply of workers in Canada.
October 6, 2022

What’s happening to inflation and why it matters

Remarks Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how inflation has evolved in recent months and explains what the Bank is watching as it takes action to return inflation to target.
October 6, 2022

Restoring price stability for all Canadians

Speech summary Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia
Governor Tiff Macklem explains how inflation in Canada reflects more and more what’s happening with domestic demand and what the Bank is watching as it works to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

Archetypes for a retail CBDC

Staff Analytical Note 2022-14 Sriram Darbha
A variety of technology designs could support retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) systems. We develop five archetypes of CBDC systems, outline their characteristics and discuss their trade-offs. This work serves as a framework to analyze and compare different designs, independent of vendor, platform and implementation.

Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance

Staff Analytical Note 2022-13 Vivian Chu, Yang Zhang
A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.
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