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73 Results

The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk

Staff Working Paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh
We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets.
November 23, 2021

Checking up on Canada’s financial system

Speech summary Paul Beaudry Ontario Securities Commission Toronto, Ontario
Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry speaks about the strength and resilience of the financial system throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recovery. He also outlines key vulnerabilities and risks going forward.
November 23, 2021

Financial stability through the pandemic and beyond

Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry OSC Dialogue, Ontario Securities Commission Toronto, Ontario
Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry provides an update on financial vulnerabilities and risks in Canada, including those stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.

What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19?

The TSX index rose by 9.5 percent in November 2020, adding large gains to an already sharp V-shaped recovery. The economic outlook improved at that time as well. We ask whether the stock market gains since last autumn are due to improving forecasts of firms’ earnings.

Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields

Staff Working Paper 2021-14 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
We investigate the economic forces behind the secular decline in bond yields. Before the anchoring of inflation in the mid-1990s, nominal shocks drove inflation, output and bond yields. Afterward, the impacts of nominal shocks were much less significant.

Canadian stock market since COVID‑19: Why a V-shaped price recovery?

Between February 19 and March 23, 2020, the Canadian stock market plunged due to the severe economic impact of COVID-19. By the end of the summer, the stock market had already recovered a significant portion of its losses, leaving many asking if investors see the economy through rose-coloured glasses. Despite these concerns, we find that current market valuations for companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange align well, on average, with the declines in earning forecasts observed since the start of the year. We also find these market valuations are consistent with the discount rate returning to its pre-pandemic level.

Is the stock market pricing in a V‑shaped recovery?

Staff Analytical Note 2020-17 James Kyeong
Major stock indexes have bounced back from their March 23 trough to about 10 percent below their peaks. However, stocks that are more sensitive to the business cycle have not performed as well during this market rally. This suggests that stock markets are pricing in a slower, shallower economic recovery.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G14

The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty

We investigate the uncertainty around stock returns at different investment horizons. Since a return is either a loss or a gain, we categorize return uncertainty into two components—loss uncertainty and gain uncertainty. We then use these components to evaluate investment.

A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices

Staff Working Paper 2020-15 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi
A put option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specific price by (or at) a specific date. A put option can therefore provide its holder insurance against a large drop in the stock price. This makes the prices of put options an ideal source of information for a market-based measure of the probability of a firm’s default.

Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields

Staff Working Paper 2020-14 Guihai Zhao
This equilibrium model explains the trend in long-term yields and business-cycle movements in short-term yields and yield spreads. The less-frequent inverted yield curves (and less-frequent recessions) after the 1990s are due to recent secular stagnation and procyclical inflation expectations.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12
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