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7 Results

Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective

Staff Discussion Paper 2014-6 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making.

Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions

Staff Discussion Paper 2014-3 Maxime Leboeuf, Louis Morel
In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth.

Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models

Staff Working Paper 2012-7 Claudia Godbout, Marco J. Lombardi
While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the recent financial crisis.

Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP

Staff Working Paper 2011-11 Philipp Maier
We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002).

‘Lean' versus ‘Rich' Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession

Staff Working Paper 2010-37 Marco J. Lombardi, Philipp Maier
We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data from national economies (pseudo-real time data).

On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment

Staff Working Paper 2010-10 Nikita Perevalov, Philipp Maier
The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP and inflation), this study evaluates forecasting performance at disaggregated levels to examine the source of the improved forecasting accuracy, relative to a simple autoregressive model. We use the latest revision of over 100 U.S. time series over the period 1974-2009 (monthly and quarterly data).

Modelling Government Fiscal Behaviour in Canada

Technical Report No. 34 Jack Selody, Kevin Lynch
There are many models of fiscal policy in the economic literature and each has been based on a particular set of assumptions concerning the interaction of policy variables. However, even though these assumptions are critical to the behaviour of the models, there has as yet been no systematic attempt to test their validity or relative […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, H, H3, H30, H6, H60