Sources of Borrowing and Fiscal Multipliers Staff working paper 2018-32 Romanos Priftis, Srecko Zimic This paper finds that debt-financed government spending multipliers vary considerably depending on the location of the debt buyer. In a sample of 33 countries, we find that government spending multipliers are larger when government purchases are financed by issuing debt to foreign investors (non-residents), compared with when government purchases are financed by issuing debt to home investors (residents). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E6, E62, F, F4, F41, H, H3 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2018 Estimates Staff analytical note 2018-22 Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich The neutral nominal policy rate serves as a benchmark for assessing the degree of monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the policy rate. Since quantitative measures of the neutral rate are subject to considerable uncertainty, Bank staff rely on four different approaches to estimate the Canadian neutral rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Reconciling Jaimovich-Rebelo Preferences, Habit in Consumption and Labor Supply Staff working paper 2018-26 Tom D. Holden, Paul Levine, Jonathan Swarbrick This note studies a form of a utility function of consumption with habit and leisure that (a) is compatible with long-run balanced growth, (b) hits a steady-state observed target for hours worked and (c) is consistent with micro-econometric evidence for the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution and the Frisch elasticity of labor supply. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns Staff working paper 2018-22 Edouard Djeutem, Geoffrey R. Dunbar We propose an uncovered expected returns parity (URP) condition for the bilateral spot exchange rate. URP implies that unilateral exchange rate equations are misspecified and that equity returns also affect exchange rates. Fama regressions provide evidence that URP is statistically preferred to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for nominal bilateral exchange rates between the US dollar and six countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the UK) at the monthly frequency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Market structure, Models and tools, Economic models
Housing Price Network Effects from Public Transit Investment: Evidence from Vancouver Staff working paper 2018-18 Alex Chernoff, Andrea Craig In this paper, we estimate the effect on housing prices of the expansion of the Vancouver SkyTrain rapid transit network during the period 2001–11. We extend the canonical residential sorting equilibrium framework to include commuting time in the household utility function. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): H, H4, H41, R, R2, R21, R4, R41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework Staff analytical note 2018-11 Alexander Ueberfeldt, Thibaut Duprey Financial system vulnerabilities increase the downside risk to future GDP growth. Macroprudential tightening significantly reduces financial stability risks associated with vulnerabilities. Monetary policy faces a trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability? Staff working paper 2018-17 José Dorich, Nicholas Labelle, Vadym Lepetyuk, Rhys R. Mendes Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff working paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff working paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Adverse Selection with Heterogeneously Informed Agents Staff working paper 2018-7 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini A model of over-the-counter markets is proposed. Some asset buyers are informed in that they can identify high quality assets. Heterogeneous sellers with private information choose what type of buyers they want to trade with. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, D8, D82, D83, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models