The Canadian Banking System Technical Report No. 81 Charles Freedman This paper examines the major changes in the Canadian banking system since the Second World War, with special attention paid to the differences between Canadian and U.S. developments over this period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2
International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy Staff Working Paper 1998-2 Patrick Osakwe, Shouyong Shi Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, J, J6
Food Aid Delivery, Food Security and Aggregate Welfare in a Small Open Economy: Theory and Evidence Staff Working Paper 1998-1 Patrick Osakwe A small-open-economy model is developed to examine how the method of food aid disbursement affects labor employment, food security and aggregate welfare, in recipient countries, in an environment in which private sector firms pay efficiency wages to induce effort. Two forms of food aid delivery are considered: first is project food aid, under which food […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics JEL Code(s): J, J4, O, O1, Q, Q1
Constraints on the Conduct of Canadian Monetary Policy in the 1990s: Dealing with Uncertainty in Financial Markets Technical Report No. 80 Kevin Clinton, Mark Zelmer Canada's economic performance in the first half of the 1990s was adversely affected by high premiums in interest rates that were brought on by political and economic uncertainties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58
Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach Staff Working Paper 1997-19 Iris Claus Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22
A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States Staff Working Paper 1997-20 Iris Claus A monetary authority with the primary objective of price stability has to distinguish between temporary price shocks and persistent shocks to the rate of inflation. A measure of underlying inflation, therefore, has an important role to play as a guideline for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Les marchés du travail régionaux : une comparaison entre le Canada et les États-Unis Staff Working Paper 1997-17 Mario Lefebvre The purpose of this study is to compare the behaviour of regional labour markets in Canada and the United States. The study shows that the degree of persistence of unemployment is significantly higher in the provinces of Canada than it is in the various American regions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24
Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada Technical Report No. 79 Pierre St-Amant, Simon van Norden In this paper, we discuss some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24
Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Market: Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns between Markets Staff Working Paper 1997-18 David Watt This paper analyses how Canadian financial firms manage short-term interest rate risk through the use of BAX futures contracts. The results show that the most effective hedging strategy is, on average, a static strategy based on linear regression that assumes constant variances, even though dynamic models allowing for time-varying variances are found to have superior explanatory power. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43
Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM Staff Working Paper 1997-16 Richard Black, David Rose This paper documents the structure and properties of the Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM). CPAM is designed to provide a reasonably complete representation of the Canadian macro economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17