Optimal Taylor Rules in an Estimated Model of a Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2004-36 Steve Ambler, Ali Dib, Nooman Rebei The authors compute welfare-maximizing Taylor rules in a dynamic general-equilibrium model of a small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F3, F31, F33
A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets? Staff Working Paper 2003-31 Nicholas Rowe, David Tulk The authors evaluate whether an assortment of simple rules could improve how the Bank of Canada implements its inflation-targeting monetary policy. They focus on measuring the correlation between the deviations of inflation from the target and the lagged deviations of rule recommendations from the actual policy interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5
May 22, 2003 Inflation Targeting and Medium-Term Planning: Some Simple Rules of Thumb Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2003 David Longworth Inflation targeting, a stable macroeconomic environment, and an average growth rate for potential output that is not expected to vary much in the next several years all help households, businesses, and governments in their medium-term economic and financial planning. Several simple rules of thumb can be usefully employed in this planning. Specifically, inflation targeting has maintained most major measures of inflation quite close to the target midpoint on average over a number of years. Combined with a clear fiscal framework, this has contributed to a more stable macroeconomic environment in which output varies less around its potential level. Potential output growth is expected to average around 3 per cent over the next several years. In light of these factors and historical relationships, labour income, profits, and consumer spending will likely grow, on average, by about 5 per cent over the medium term. Real and nominal long-term interest rates should also continue to be stable, with real 30-year yields varying around 3.5 or 4.0 per cent, and nominal yields varying around 5.5 or 6.0 per cent. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits
How to Improve Inflation Targeting at the Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2002-23 Nicholas Rowe This paper shows that if the Bank of Canada is optimally adjusting its monetary policy instrument in response to inflation indicators to target 2 per cent inflation at a two-year horizon, then deviations of inflation from 2 per cent represent the Bank's forecast errors, and should be uncorrelated with its information set, which includes two-year lagged values of the instrument and the indicators. Positive or negative correlations are evidence of systematic errors in monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5
May 21, 2002 Inflation and the Macroeconomy: Changes from the 1980s to the 1990s Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2002 David Longworth Over the last 10 years, the level of inflation has been much lower than in the previous two decades. At the same time, the behaviour of inflation has changed profoundly. By surveying the data and the economic research, the author first examines changes in the variability, growth rates, and behaviour of some of the major macroeconomic variables during the 1980s and 1990s. He then looks at how these changes are linked to a shift in the approach of monetary policy over the period. Lastly, he reviews the economic benefits that these changes have had for Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits
November 18, 2001 A New Measure of Core Inflation Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2001 Tiff Macklem While the Bank of Canada's inflation-control target is specified in terms of the rate of increase in the total consumer price index, the Bank uses a measure of trend or "core" inflation as a short-term guide for its monetary policy actions. When the inflation targets were renewed in May 2001, the Bank announced that it was adopting a new measure of core inflation. This measure excludes the eight most volatile components of the CPI and adjusts the remaining components for the effect of changes in indirect taxes. In this article, the author discusses the definition of the new measure of core inflation and describes some of its advantages relative to the previous measure. He notes that the new measure has a firmer statistical basis, has a better correspondence with economic theory, and does a better job of predicting future changes in overall inflation. While the new measure has these advantages, the Bank will continue to monitor a broad range of indicators when assessing the likely future path for inflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation targets
November 17, 2001 Predictability of Average Inflation over Long Time Horizons Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2001 Allan Crawford Uncertainty about the level of future inflation adversely affects the economy because it distorts the savings and investment decisions of households and businesses. Since these decisions typically involve planning horizons of many years, the adverse effects from inflation uncertainty can be reduced by adopting a policy framework that makes future inflation more predictable over long time horizons. When the inflation-control target was renewed in May 2001, the agreement affirmed that monetary policy will be directed at moving inflation to the 2 per cent midpoint of the target range over a six-to-eight-quarter horizon. The author describes how this policy commitment increases the predictability of average inflation over periods longer than one year. This relationship is illustrated using the Canadian experience from the inflation-targeting period. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation targets
Gaining Credibility for Inflation Targets Staff Working Paper 2001-11 James Yetman In this paper, I consider a simple model in which agents learn about the inflation target of a central bank over time by observing the policy instrument or inflation outcomes. Measuring credibility as the distance between the perceived target and the actual target, an increase in credibility is beneficial to the central bank because it brings the policy consistent with attaining the inflation target closer to that required to attain the output target. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
How Rigid Are Nominal-Wage Rates? Staff Working Paper 2001-8 Allan Crawford This study examines the effect of nominal-wage rigidities on wage growth in Canada using a hazard model and micro data for union contracts. The hazard model is specified in a way that allows considerable flexibility in the shape of the estimated notional wage-change distribution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E5, E52, E6, E61
Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity: Micro Evidence from Tobit Models Staff Working Paper 2001-7 Allan Crawford, Geoff Wright This paper uses Tobit models and data for union contracts to examine the extent of downward nominal-wage rigidity in Canada. To be consistent with important stylized facts, the models allow the variance of the notional wage-change distribution to be time-varying and test for menu-cost effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E5, E52, E6, E61