Pricing behaviour and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata Staff Analytical Note 2024-6 Olga Bilyk, Mikael Khan, Olena Kostyshyna Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11
March 26, 2024 Time to break the glass: Fixing Canada’s productivity problem Remarks Carolyn Rogers Halifax Partnership Halifax, Nova Scotia Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers explains how higher productivity can protect the economy from future bouts of inflation and why fixing Canada's productivity problem should be a priority for all Canadians. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity
March 26, 2024 The productivity problem Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Halifax Partnership Halifax, Nova Scotia Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about some of the reasons for Canada’s poor productivity track record, and what we can do to turn the tide. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2024-5 Tao Wang The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E71
Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations Staff Working Paper 2023-63 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C9, C93, D, D8, D84, E, E5, E59, E7
December 21, 2023 How higher interest rates affect inflation When the Bank of Canada changes its policy interest rate, it affects every part of the economy – but that does not happen all at once. Learn more about how raising and lowering interest rates takes effect through the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission
December 15, 2023 Lessons learned and looking ahead Speech summary Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario In his year-end remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how lessons learned from recent economic volatility are reshaping the way the Bank of Canada conducts economic analysis and communicates with the public. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
December 15, 2023 The path to price stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the economy will continue to adjust to higher interest rates in the year ahead, and outlines what Canadians can expect from the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff Analytical Note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15
December 7, 2023 Economic progress report: Immigration, housing and the outlook for inflation Remarks Toni Gravelle Windsor–Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce Windsor, Ontario Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses the latest interest rate decision along with how immigration helps Canada’s economy and how it impacts inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments