Foreign exchange risk premiums and global currency factors Staff Analytical Note 2024-20 Ingomar Krohn, Mariel Yacolca Maguiña Global currency risk factors continue to explain a large share of the variation in the Canadian dollar during the period following the 2008–09 global financial crisis. We show that they are also systematically important for risk premiums, and only in recent months has the role of idiosyncratic country-specific risks grown. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
Financial Intermediation and Fire Sales with Liquidity Risk Pricing Staff Working Paper 2024-18 Yuteng Cheng, Roberto Robatto We provide a theory of fire sales in which potential buyers are subject to liquidity shocks and frictions that limit their ability to resell assets. Viewed through the lens of the model, the liquidity requirements proposed by the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission for these intermediaries could hurt the economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G23, G28
May 9, 2024 Release of the Financial Stability Report Opening statement Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial Stability Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments
Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans Staff Working Paper 2023-54 Michael Boutros, Nuno Clara, Francisco Gomes We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models, Financial markets, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E2, G, G5, H, H3
Generalized Autoregressive Gamma Processes Staff Working Paper 2023-40 Bruno Feunou We introduce generalized autoregressive gamma (GARG) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes in which each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable moving average of the variable of interest. We show that using GARG processes reduces pricing errors by substantially more than using existing autoregressive gamma processes does. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G1, G12
It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2023-9 Greg Adams, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, E5, E52
Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2023-25 John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang, Huan Xie We study the trading of an asset with bankruptcy risk. The traded price of the asset is, on average, 40% of the expected total dividend payments. We investigate which economic models can explain the low traded price. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D81, G, G1, G12
What we can learn by linking firms’ reported emissions with their financial data Staff Analytical Note 2023-4 Matthew Ackman, Timothy Grieder, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée We analyze the financial statements and stock prices of publicly traded firms incorporated in Canada that report greenhouse gas emissions. We find that these firms primarily use equity financing. We also find that equity investors increasingly account for firms’ emissions when making investment decisions but the impact appears small. This suggests that assets exposed to climate change remain at risk of a sudden repricing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Climate change, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G3, Q, Q5
Analyzing the house price boom in the suburbs of Canada’s major cities during the pandemic Staff Analytical Note 2022-7 Louis Morel We assess how location affects house prices in Canada. The gap in prices between suburbs and downtown was closing gradually before the pandemic. The gap has been closing faster since spring 2020. This finding reflects a shift in preferences toward more living space. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R23, R3, R32
Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E51, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23, G24, G3, G32