Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service Staff Working Paper 2020-55 Lerby Ergun, Andreas Uthemann We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14
March 21, 2017 Getting Down to Business: Investment and the Economic Outlook Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the factors affecting business investment and the implications for the economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments
Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 2004-2 Richard Luger The author proposes a class of exact tests of the null hypothesis of exchangeable forecast errors and, hence, of the hypothesis of no difference in the unconditional accuracy of two competing forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53
Removal of the Unwinding Provisions in the Automated Clearing Settlement System: A Risk Assessment Staff Discussion Paper 2014-4 Nicholas Labelle, Varya Taylor A default in the Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS) occurs when a Direct Clearer is unable to settle its final obligation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G0, G01, G2, G3
Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy in Canada Since 1981 Staff Working Paper 2002-25 Ali Dib This paper develops and estimates a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium model with price and wage stickiness to analyze monetary policy in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
High-Cost Consumer Credit: Desperation, Temptation and Default Staff Working Paper 2025-6 Joaquín Saldain I study the welfare consequences of regulations on high-cost consumer credit in the United States and find that borrowing limits have distributional impacts on households with self-control issues. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E7, E71, G, G5, G51
The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices Staff Analytical Note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C3, C36, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G23
Long-Run Demand for M1 Staff Working Paper 1995-11 Scott Hendry The goal of this paper is to investigate and estimate long-run relationships among M1, prices, output and interest rates, with a view to determining if there is a stable relationship that can be interpreted as long-run money demand. The paper uses a maximum-likelihood multiple-equation cointegration technique, developed by Johansen, to fit a system of equations […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary aggregates
Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform Staff Working Paper 2021-15 Gabriela Galassi How do firms change their employment decisions when tax benefits for low-earning workers are expanded? Some firms increase employment overall, whereas others replace high-earning workers with low-earning workers, according to German linked employer-employee data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E6, E64, H, H2, H20, H24, H3, H32, I, I3, I38, J, J2, J23, J3, J38
Low Inflation in Advanced Economies: Facts and Drivers Staff Analytical Note 2017-16 Sanjana Bhatnagar, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit, Elise Martin, Vikram Rai, Renaud St-Cyr, Subrata Sarker, Kristina Hess Since the global financial crisis, core inflation has been persistently below target in most advanced economies. Recently, it has weakened further in several advanced economies despite gradually diminishing slack. This note reviews recent developments in core inflation across advanced economies and identifies distinctive patterns across regions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E0, E3, E31, F, F0