The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: How Important Is It? Staff Working Paper 2001-6 David Amirault, Brian O'Reilly This paper surveys the literature on the zero bound on the nominal interest rate. It addresses questions ranging from the conditions under which the zero bound on the nominal interest rate might occur to policy options to avoid or use to exit from such a situation. We discuss literature that examines historical and country evidence, and literature that uses models to generate evidence on this question. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61
'Lean' versus 'Rich' Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession Staff Working Paper 2010-37 Marco J. Lombardi, Philipp Maier We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data from national economies (pseudo-real time data). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting Staff Working Paper 2007-18 Marc-André Gosselin The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experience. In this paper, we analyze the inflation record of IT central banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
On the Believable Benefits of Low Inflation Staff Working Paper 1998-15 Christopher Ragan This paper reviews the existing theoretical and empirical literature addressing the benefits of low inflation. The ultimate goal is to arrive at a set of benefits in which a monetary authority can have genuine confidence. I argue that the current state of economic research—both empirical and theoretical—provides little basis for believing in significant observable benefits […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Fixed-Term and Permanent Employment Contracts: Theory and Evidence Staff Working Paper 2011-21 Shutao Cao, Enchuan Shao, Pedro Silos This paper constructs a theory of the coexistence of fixed-term and permanent employment contracts in an environment with ex-ante identical workers and employers. Workers under fixed-term contracts can be dismissed at no cost while permanent employees enjoy labor protection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): H, H2, H29, J, J2, J23, J3, J38
January 21, 2010 Monetary Policy Report – January 2010 The global economic recovery is under way, supported by continued improvements in fi nancial conditions and stronger domestic demand growth in many emerging-market economies. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
The Long-Term Effects of Cross-Listing, Investor Recognition, and Ownership Structure on Valuation Staff Working Paper 2006-44 Michael R. King, Dan Segal The authors show that the widening of a foreign firm's U.S. investor base and the improved information environment associated with cross-listing on a U.S. exchange each have a separately identifiable effect on a firm's valuation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G15
Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level Staff Working Paper 2001-16 Gerald Stuber This paper surveys recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on the economic implications of uncertainty about the longer-term outlook for inflation. In particular, the linkages between inflation, long-run inflation uncertainty, and aggregate economic activity in industrial economies have become considerably better understood during the past decade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E31, E4, E44
Price Level Targeting: What Is the Right Price? Staff Working Paper 2010-8 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt Various papers have suggested that Price-Level targeting is a welfare improving policy relative to Inflation targeting. From a practical standpoint, this raises an important yet unanswered question: What is the optimal price index to target? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52