Sectoral Uncertainty Staff working paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C55, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
November 30, 2018 Research Update - November 2018 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
December 10, 2014 Exchange-Traded Funds: Evolution of Benefits, Vulnerabilities and Risks Financial System Review - December 2014 Ian Foucher, Kyle Gray Ian Foucher and Kyle Gray explain the different types of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which present both benefits and risks for investors. They discuss ways in which the risk characteristics of certain ETF products could have broader implications for the financial system, and describe the evolution of ETF market structure and regulation in different jurisdictions as authorities try to mitigate risks related to ETFs. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G18, G2, G20
Canadian job postings in digital sectors during COVID-19 Staff analytical note 2021-18 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi Digital technologies have helped maintain economic activity while allowing people to remain physically distant throughout the COVID-19 crisis. This note shows that the number of online postings for jobs related to the production of digital technologies in Canada decreased less than the number for other jobs and recovered more quickly after lockdowns were lifted. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J23, J6, J63, J64, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
April 16, 2014 Monetary Policy Report – April 2014 Economic growth in Canada is expected to average about 2 1/2 per cent in 2014 and 2015 before easing to around the 2 per cent growth rate of the economy’s potential in 2016. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
May 6, 2005 The Canadian Economy: Adjusting to Global Economic Forces Remarks David Dodge Ottawa Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario The year 2005 marks the 150th anniversary of the establishment of Ottawa as a city. On 1 January 1855, the logging community of Bytown was formally incorporated as a city and adopted Ottawa as its new name. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
October 24, 2002 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Opening statement David Dodge Press conference in New York The Canadian economy has been expanding strongly so far this year and is now operating fairly close to its full production capacity. Consumer price inflation has risen above the 2 per cent target and is expected to rise further before year-end because of high oil prices and a number of other relative price movements. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
February 11, 2004 Adjusting to a Changing Economic World Remarks David Dodge Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montréal Montréal, Quebec These are turbulent times, not just for business people, but for all Canadians. We have come through a very difficult year, a year filled with surprises that have challenged us all. At times like these, it is easy to focus on the near-term issues and problems. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment Staff analytical note 2017-7 Russell Barnett, Rhys R. Mendes Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty Staff working paper 2023-29 Matteo Cacciatore, Stefano Gnocchi, Daniela Hauser We estimate the effects of economic uncertainty on time use and discuss its macroeconomic implications. We develop a model to demonstrate that substitution between market and non-market work provides an additional insurance margin to households, weakening precautionary savings and labour supply and lowering aggregate demand, ultimately amplifying the contractionary effects of uncertainty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J22 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting