2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: The Resilience of Cash Staff discussion paper 2024-8 Christopher Henry, Matthew Shimoda, Doina Rusu We present key results from the 2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey. Results show that measures of cash management and use have remained stable since 2020, and that Canadians increased their adoption of payment alternatives such as mobile apps in 2023. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
Monetary Policy, Trends in Real Interest Rates and Depressed Demand Staff working paper 2021-27 Paul Beaudry, Césaire Meh Over the last few decades, real interest rates have trended downward. The most common explanation is that this reflects depressed demand due to demographic, technological and other real factors. We explore the claim that these trends may have been amplified by certain features of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63, H, H3, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Canadian Bank Notes and Dominion Notes: Lessons for Digital Currencies Staff working paper 2017-5 Ben Fung, Scott Hendry, Warren E. Weber This paper studies the period in Canada when both private bank notes and government-issued notes (Dominion notes) were simultaneously in circulation. Because both of these notes shared many of the characteristics of today's digital currencies, the experience with these notes can be used to draw lessons about how digital currencies might perform. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech
What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure Staff discussion paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C8, C81, D, D2, D22 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
A Calibrated Model of Intraday Settlement Staff discussion paper 2018-3 Héctor Pérez Saiz, Siddharth Untawala, Gabriel Xerri This paper estimates potential exposures, netting benefits and settlement gains by merging retail and wholesale payments into batches and conducting multiple intraday settlements in this hypothetical model of a single "calibrated payments system." The results demonstrate that credit risk exposures faced by participants in the system are largely dependent on their relative activity in the retail and wholesale payments systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Revisiting the Monetary Sovereignty Rationale for CBDCs Staff discussion paper 2021-17 Skylar Brooks One argument for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is that without them, private and foreign digital monies could displace domestic currencies, threatening the central bank’s monetary policy and lender of last resort capabilities. I revisit this monetary sovereignty rationale and offer a wider view—one that considers a broader set of currency functions and captures important cross-country variation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E52, E58, H, H1, H12, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations Staff discussion paper 2025-11 Jacob Dolinar, Patrick Sabourin, Matt West We introduce the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicator. This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Assessing the Impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchases Staff discussion paper 2024-5 Chinara Azizova, Jonathan Witmer, Xu Zhang In March 2020, the Bank of Canada implemented the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, eventually purchasing approximately $340 billion of government bonds. In this paper, we analyze the impact of this program on financial market prices and yields as well as on GDP and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Technology Approach for a CBDC Staff analytical note 2020-6 Dinesh Shah, Rakesh Arora, Han Du, Sriram Darbha, John Miedema, Cyrus Minwalla In this note, we highlight a range of technical options and considerations in designing a contingent system for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in Canada and explore how these options achieve stated public policy goals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, O, O3, O31 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
November 13, 2014 Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing on Emerging-Market Economies Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Robert Lavigne, Subrata Sarker, Garima Vasishtha While quantitative easing (QE) in the United States likely increased capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs), putting upward pressure on asset prices and exchange rates, diverging fundamentals between advanced economies and EMEs were also important drivers. Evidence suggests that the benefits of QE to EMEs, in higher global demand and increased confidence, appear to outweigh the costs. When advanced economies begin to normalize monetary policy, the best defence for EMEs against any potential instability is likely to be further strengthening of their macroeconomic and financial policy frameworks. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, F42