A Discussion of the Reliability of Results Obtained with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Staff Working Paper 1998-4 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier In a recent article, Faust and Leeper (1997) discuss reasons why inference from structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions may not be reliable. In this paper, the authors argue that there are reasons to believe that Faust and Leeper's arguments are not devastating in practice. First, simulation exercises suggest that this approach does well when […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3
Tendance des dépenses publiques et de l'inflation et évolution comparative du taux de chômage au Canada et aux États-Unis Staff Working Paper 1998-3 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier The authors' purpose in this paper is to isolate the respective contributions of budgetary and monetary policy in Canada and the United States to the behaviour of unemployment rates in the two countries. Their method consists of estimating VAR models and using long-term identification restrictions to perform a structural analysis. Budgetary policy shocks are defined […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6
The Financial Services Sector: Past Changes and Future Prospects Technical Report No. 82 Charles Freedman, Clyde Goodlet The financial services industry has been undergoing significant change in recent years. This paper analyzes some key developments affecting the industry and examines some important issues facing the industry and its regulators. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G2
The Canadian Banking System Technical Report No. 81 Charles Freedman This paper examines the major changes in the Canadian banking system since the Second World War, with special attention paid to the differences between Canadian and U.S. developments over this period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2
International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy Staff Working Paper 1998-2 Patrick Osakwe, Shouyong Shi Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, J, J6
Food Aid Delivery, Food Security and Aggregate Welfare in a Small Open Economy: Theory and Evidence Staff Working Paper 1998-1 Patrick Osakwe A small-open-economy model is developed to examine how the method of food aid disbursement affects labor employment, food security and aggregate welfare, in recipient countries, in an environment in which private sector firms pay efficiency wages to induce effort. Two forms of food aid delivery are considered: first is project food aid, under which food […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics JEL Code(s): J, J4, O, O1, Q, Q1
Constraints on the Conduct of Canadian Monetary Policy in the 1990s: Dealing with Uncertainty in Financial Markets Technical Report No. 80 Kevin Clinton, Mark Zelmer Canada's economic performance in the first half of the 1990s was adversely affected by high premiums in interest rates that were brought on by political and economic uncertainties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58
Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach Staff Working Paper 1997-19 Iris Claus Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22
A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States Staff Working Paper 1997-20 Iris Claus A monetary authority with the primary objective of price stability has to distinguish between temporary price shocks and persistent shocks to the rate of inflation. A measure of underlying inflation, therefore, has an important role to play as a guideline for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Les marchés du travail régionaux : une comparaison entre le Canada et les États-Unis Staff Working Paper 1997-17 Mario Lefebvre The purpose of this study is to compare the behaviour of regional labour markets in Canada and the United States. The study shows that the degree of persistence of unemployment is significantly higher in the provinces of Canada than it is in the various American regions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24