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This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on April 10, 2024.

The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants.

Monetary policy is working to reduce inflationary pressures and inflation is coming down, although it will take more time to see if this progress proves durable. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% into the second quarter of 2024, ease below 2.5% in the second half of the year and return to target in 2025.

Business sentiment and sales growth expectations have stopped falling, according to firms responding to the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. But demand remains subdued, which is allowing price pressures and the labour market to ease. As a result, fewer firms than in the previous survey are planning unusually large or frequent price increases over the next 12 months.

Consumers believe inflation has slowed, but expectations for inflation in the near term have barely changed. Sticky inflation expectations may be due to elevated uncertainty about near-term inflation and still-high expectations for interest rates and rent costs over the next 12 months. Long-term inflation expectations have increased from low levels. Relative to last quarter, consumers now think domestic factors supporting high inflation, such as high government spending and elevated housing costs, will take longer to resolve. High inflation and high interest rates continue to impact household budgets and spending decisions, but consumers are less pessimistic about the economic outlook. After easing for several quarters, perceptions of the labour market have stabilized, and high inflation expectations continue to support stronger-than-average expectations for wage growth.

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on March 6, 2024.

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on January 24, 2024.

The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants.

Interest rates are working to moderate spending and inflation is easing gradually, though underlying pressures are proving persistent. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% through the first half of 2024, returning to target in 2025.

We develop a new analytical framework to understand the system-wide implications of climate transition risk. When applying this framework to Canadian data, we find that interconnections within the financial sector could amplify the direct effects of climate transition risk on financial entities.