Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill
How are your past, current and future earnings related to those of your parents? We explore this by using 37 years of Canadian tax data on two generations.
Econometric, statistical and computational methods
-
-
On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity
Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors. -
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil
How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. -
Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models
What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital? -
Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning
Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash. -
Sample Calibration of the Online CFM Survey
The Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) survey uses non-probability sampling for data collection, so selection bias is likely. We outline methods for obtaining survey weights and discuss the conditions necessary for these weights to eliminate selection bias. We obtain calibration weights for the 2018 and 2019 online CFM samples. -
Classical Decomposition of Markowitz Portfolio Selection
In this study, we enhance Markowitz portfolio selection with graph theory for the analysis of two portfolios composed of either EU or US assets. Using a threshold-based decomposition of their respective covariance matrices, we perturb the level of risk in each portfolio and build the corresponding sets of graphs. -
The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty
We investigate the uncertainty around stock returns at different investment horizons. Since a return is either a loss or a gain, we categorize return uncertainty into two components—loss uncertainty and gain uncertainty. We then use these components to evaluate investment. -
Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions
We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models. -
Welfare Analysis of Equilibria With and Without Early Termination Fees in the US Wireless Industry
The elimination of long-term contracts and early termination fees (ETFs) in the US wireless industry at the end of 2015 increased monthly service fees by 2 to 5 percent. Nevertheless, consumers are clearly better off without ETFs. While firms’ revenues from ETFs vanish, their profits from monthly fees increase. As a result, the overall effect on producer profits is less clear.