Posts
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November 9, 2023
Financial stability in a world of higher interest rates
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about financial stability in an era of higher interest rates. -
The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications
We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes and average prices paid by consumers (“effective” prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many U.S. metropolitan areas. -
Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM
This paper documents the structure and properties of the Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM). CPAM is designed to provide a reasonably complete representation of the Canadian macro economy. -
November 29, 2017
Quarterly Financial Report - Third Quarter 2017
Quarterly Financial Report - Third Quarter 2017 - For the period ended September 30, 2017
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Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps
What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds? -
January 16, 2023
Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2022
Results of the fourth-quarter survey show that consumers have reduced their purchases of a broad range of goods and services in response to rising inflation and increases in interest rates. High food prices are a particular source of frustration for households. Most consumers anticipate a mild or moderate recession in the next 12 months. And although labour markets continue to be strong, some early signals suggest consumers think this strength will fade. Meanwhile, short-term inflation expectations remain elevated this quarter, but consumers have varied opinions about where inflation will be in five years. More people than before the pandemic expect deflation. -
Productive Misallocation and International Transmission of Credit Shocks
We develop an asymmetric, two-country equilibrium business cycle model to study the role of international trade in transmitting and propagating the real effects of global financial shocks. Our model predicts that a recession in a large economy considerably alters a recession in its smaller trade partner, with distinct investment dynamics driving the transmission. -
What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account
When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance. -
Emergency Liquidity Facilities, Signalling and Funding Costs
In the months preceding the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, banks were willing to pay a premium over the Federal Reserve’s discount window (DW) rate to participate in the much less flexible Term Auction Facility (TAF). We empirically test the predictions of a new signalling model that offers a rationale for offering two different liquidity facilities.