O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth

• Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt

  Staff discussion paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E6, E63, F, F0, F02, F1, F15, F5, F53, F6, H, O, O1, O11, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution

  Staff discussion paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.”

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

• 2018 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey: Awareness and Usage

  Staff discussion paper 2019-10 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson

  The Bank of Canada continues to use the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) to monitor trends in Canadians’ awareness, ownership and use of Bitcoin. The most recent iteration was conducted in late 2018, following an 85 percent decline in the price of Bitcoin throughout the year.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019

  Staff analytical note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk

  This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper

  Staff discussion paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky

  Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon?

  Staff working paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant

  We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

• Financial Development Beyond the Formal Financial Market

  Staff working paper 2018-49 Lin Shao

  This paper studies the effects of financial development, taking into account both formal and informal financing. Using cross-country firm-level data, we document that informal financing is utilized more by rich countries than poor countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, O, O1, O17, O4, O47 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

  Staff analytical note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess

  This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity

• Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration

  Staff working paper 2018-15 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier

  There are indications that business dynamism has declined in advanced economies. In particular, firm entry and exit rates have fallen, suggesting that the creative destruction process has lost some of its vitality. Meanwhile, productivity growth has slowed. Some believe that lower entry and exit rates partly explain the weaker productivity growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, M, M1, M13, O, O4, O47 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

• Blockchain Revolution Without the Blockchain

  Staff analytical note 2018-5 Hanna Halaburda

  The technology behind blockchain has attracted a lot of attention. However, this technology is for the most part not well understood. There is no consensus on what benefits it may bring or on how it may fail.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D8, G, G2, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity