G - Financial Economics

• Do Low Interest Rates Sow the Seeds of Financial Crises?

  Staff Working Paper 2011-31 Simona Cociuba, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  A view advanced in the aftermath of the late-2000s financial crisis is that lower than optimal interest rates lead to excessive risk taking by financial intermediaries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G28

• Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery

  Staff Working Paper 2011-30 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl

  We study the trading dynamics in an asset market where the quality of assets is private information of the owner and finding a counterparty takes time. When trading of a financial asset ceases in equilibrium as a response to an adverse shock to asset quality, a large player can resurrect the market by buying up lemons which involves assuming financial losses.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E6, G, G1

• Effectiveness of Capital Controls in India: Evidence from the Offshore NDF Market

  Staff Working Paper 2011-29 Michael Hutchison, Gurnain Pasricha, Nirvikar Singh

  This paper examines the effectiveness of international capital controls in India over time by analyzing daily return differentials in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) methodology.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G15

• Security Transaction Taxes and Market Quality

  Staff Working Paper 2011-26 Anna Pomeranets, Daniel G. Weaver

  We examine nine changes in the New York State Security Transaction Taxes (STT) between 1932 and 1981. We find that imposing or increasing an STT results in wider bidask spreads, lower volume, and increased price impact of trades.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, G, G1, G10, G12

• What Matters in Determining Capital Surcharges for Systemically Important Financial Institutions?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2011-9 Céline Gauthier, Toni Gravelle, Xuezhi Liu, Moez Souissi

  One way of internalizing the externalities that each individual bank imposes on the rest of the financial system is to impose capital surcharges on them in line with their systemic importance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21

• Innovation and Growth with Financial, and Other, Frictions

  Staff Working Paper 2011-25 Jonathan Chiu, Césaire Meh, Randall Wright

  The generation and implementation of ideas, or knowledge, is crucial for economic performance. We study this process in a model of endogenous growth with frictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G2, O, O3, O4

• Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession

  Staff Working Paper 2011-24 Joshua Aizenman, Gurnain Pasricha

  In this paper, we explore the link between stress in the domestic financial sector and the capital flight faced by countries in the 2008-9 global crisis. Both the timing of emergence of internal financial stress in developing economies, and the size of the peak-trough declines in the stock price indices was comparable to that in high income countries, indicating that there was no decoupling, even before Lehman Brothers’ demise.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, G, G1, G15

• A Stochastic Volatility Model with Conditional Skewness

  Staff Working Paper 2011-20 Bruno Feunou, Roméo Tedongap

  We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, G, G1, G12

• Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2011-19 Toni Gravelle, Fuchun Li

  In this paper, we define a financial institution’s contribution to financial systemic risk as the increase in financial systemic risk conditional on the crash of the financial institution. The higher the contribution is, the more systemically important is the institution for the system.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G3, G32

• Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2011-17 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Jakub Kastl

  This paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G28