G15 - International Financial Markets

• News-Driven International Credit Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan

  This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21

• Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock

  Staff Working Paper 2021-48 Ingomar Krohn, Philippe Mueller, Paul Whelan

  We document a new empirical finding in the foreign exchange market: currency returns show systematic reversals around the benchmark fixings. Specifically, the US dollar, on average, appreciates in the hours before fixes and depreciates after fixes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15

• BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2021?

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-15 David Beers, Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh

  The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2020?

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-13 David Beers, Elliot Jones, John Walsh

  The Boc–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2020 edition includes a new section examining the scale of domestic arrears in 2018.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology, Assumptions and Sources

  Technical Report No. 117 David Beers, Elliot Jones, John Walsh

  Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial institutions, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2020-25 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon

  We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, F, F3, F32, F4, F42, G, G1, G15, G18

• Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool

  Staff Working Paper 2020-13 Fabio Ghironi, Galip Kemal Ozhan

  We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G15

• The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Markets: Evidence from Oil Inventory News

  Staff Working Paper 2020-8 Ron Alquist, Reinhard Ellwanger, Jianjian Jin

  We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G14, G15, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

• CBDC and Monetary Sovereignty

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-5 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Yu Zhu

  In an increasingly digitalized world, issuers of private digital currency can weaken central banks’ ability to stabilize the economy. By continuing to make central bank money attractive as a payment instrument in a digital world, a central bank digital currency (CDBC) could help to maintain a country’s monetary sovereignty.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F5, F55, G, G1, G15

• Interconnected Banks and Systemically Important Exposures

  Staff Working Paper 2019-44 Alan Roncoroni, Stefano Battiston, Marco D’Errico, Grzegorz Halaj, Christoffer Kok

  How do banks' interconnections in the euro area contribute to the vulnerability of the banking system? We study both the direct interconnections (banks lend to each other) and the indirect interconnections (banks are exposed to similar sectors of the economy). These complex linkages make the banking system more vulnerable to contagion risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G1, G15, G2, G21