E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

• Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model

  Staff Working Paper 2006-4 Ali Dib, Mohamed Gammoudi, Kevin Moran

  The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E3, E32, E37

• Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-33 Ramdane Djoudad, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

• Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics: Evidence from a Two-Dimensional Labour Supply Model with Money

  Staff Working Paper 2005-30 Ali Dib, Louis Phaneuf

  The hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labour supply has a history of empirical failure when confronted with aggregate time-series data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J2, J22

• Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-15 Hafedh Bouakez, Takashi Kano

  In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, J, J2, J22

• State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does It Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-4 Peter J. Klenow, Oleksiy Kryvtsov

  Inflation equals the product of two terms: an extensive margin (the fraction of items with price changes) and an intensive margin (the average size of those changes).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

• Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni

  Staff Working Paper 2004-46 Charles St-Arnaud

  The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E23, E3, E32

• The Transmission of World Shocks to Emerging-Market Countries: An Empirical Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2004-44 Brigitte Desroches

  The first step in designing effective policies to stabilize an economy is to understand business cycles. No country is isolated from the world economy and external shocks are becoming increasingly important.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E32, E6, E61, F, F0, F02

• Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Small Open Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2004-41 Nooman Rebei

  The author studies the macroeconomic consequences of discretionary changes in the fiscal policy instruments for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62

• Investment, Private Information, and Social Learning: A Case Study of the Semiconductor Industry

  Staff Working Paper 2004-32 Rose Cunningham

  Social learning models of investment provide an interesting explanation for sudden changes in investment behaviour.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, E, E3, E32, L, L6, L63

• The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment

  Staff Working Paper 2004-15 Monica Martin, Cristiano Papile

  Since the autumn of 1997, the Bank of Canada's regional offices (located in Halifax, Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver) have conducted consultations with businesses across Canada on a quarterly basis. These consultations are now referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E66