E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

• Some Explorations, Using Canadian Data, of the S-Variable in Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (1996)

  Staff Working Paper 2000-6 Seamus Hogan, Lise Pichette

  A number of authors have suggested that economies face a long-run inflation-unemployment trade-off due to downward nominal-wage rigidity. This theory has implications for the nature of the short-run Phillips curve when wage inflation is low.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E2, E24, E5, E50

• Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2000-3 Gilles Bérubé, Denise Côté

  This paper examines the structural determinants of the personal savings rate in Canada over the last 30 years, using cointegration techniques. The main finding is that the real interest rate, expected inflation, the ratio of the all-government fiscal balances to nominal GDP, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income are the most […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, E21

• Dynamic Employment and Hours Effects of Government Spending Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 1999-1 Mingwei Yuan, Wenli Li

  In this paper, we analyze the dynamic behaviour of employment and hours worked per worker in a stochastic general equilibrium model with a matching mechanism between vacancies and unemployed workers. The model is estimated for the United States using the Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) estimation technique. An increase in government spending raises hours worked […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E6, E62, J, J6, J64

• Can a Matching Model Explain the Long-Run Increase in Canada's Unemployment Rate?

  Staff Working Paper 1998-19 Andreas Hornstein, Mingwei Yuan

  The authors construct a simple general equilibrium model of unemployment and calibrate it to the Canadian economy. Job creation and destruction are endogenous. In this model, they consider several potential factors that could contribute to the long-run increase in the Canadian unempoloyment rate: a more generous unemployment insurance system, higher layoff costs, higher discretionary taxes, […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E6, J, J4

• Consumer Attitudes, Uncertainty, and Consumer Spending

  Staff Working Paper 1998-16 Denise Côté, Marianne Johnson

  This study examines the link between consumer expenditures and the Conference Board's Index of Consumer Attitudes, an index highly regarded for some time as a useful leading indicator of consumer expenditures. However, the theory that identifies why it may be useful in an analysis of consumption is less well established. To explore this question, we […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2

• Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach

  Staff Working Paper 1997-19 Iris Claus

  Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22

• Les marchés du travail régionaux : une comparaison entre le Canada et les États-Unis

  Staff Working Paper 1997-17 Mario Lefebvre

  The purpose of this study is to compare the behaviour of regional labour markets in Canada and the United States. The study shows that the degree of persistence of unemployment is significantly higher in the provinces of Canada than it is in the various American regions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24

• What Does Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity Imply for Monetary Policy?

  Staff Working Paper 1997-13 Seamus Hogan

  A recent paper has suggested there might be a trade-off between inflation and unemployment at low inflation rates and this has led some economists to recommend that Canada increase its inflation rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E2, E24, E5, E50

• A Micro Approach to the Issue of Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from the 1988­1990 Labour Market Activity Survey

  Staff Working Paper 1997-12 Gordon Wilkinson

  This paper uses a rich set of microeconomic labour market data—the 1988­90 Labour Market Activity Survey published by Statistics Canada—to test whether there is negative duration dependence in unemployment spells. It updates and extends similar work carried out by Jones (1995) who used the 1986­87 Labour Market Activity Survey.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24

• The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 4. A Semi-Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output: Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter

  Technical Report No. 77 Leo Butler

  The level of potential output plays a central role in the Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). This report, the fourth in a series documenting QPM, describes a general method to measure potential output, as well as its implementation in the QPM system.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E2, E23