C9 - Design of Experiments

• Unmet Payment Needs and a Central Bank Digital Currency

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-15 Christopher Henry, Walter Engert, Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, Darcey McVanel, Kim Huynh

  We discuss the payment habits of Canadians both in the current payment environment and in a hypothetical cashless environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2023-39 Janet Hua Jiang, Peter Norman, Daniela Puzzello, Bruno Sultanum, Randall Wright

  Monetary theory says that money is essential if it helps to achieve better incentive-feasible outcomes. We test this in the laboratory.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, E, E4, E5

• Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 2023-25 John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang, Huan Xie

  We study the trading of an asset with bankruptcy risk. The traded price of the asset is, on average, 40% of the expected total dividend payments. We investigate which economic models can explain the low traded price.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D81, G, G1, G12

• Learning in a Complex World: Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment

  Staff Working Paper 2023-13 Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Daria Minina, Isabelle Salle

  This paper brings novel insights into group coordination and price dynamics in complex environments. We implement a chaotic overlapping-generation model in the lab and find that group coordination is always on the steady state or on the two-cycle and that behavior is non-monotonic.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, C68, C9, C91, C92, E, E1, E13, E7, E70, G, G1, G12, G4, G41

• Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory

  Staff Working Paper 2023-11 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang

  We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40

• Cash, COVID-19 and the Prospects for a Canadian Digital Dollar

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-17 Walter Engert, Kim Huynh

  We provide an analysis of cash trends in Canada before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also consider the potential two scenarios for issuance of a central bank digital currency in Canada: the emergence of a cashless society or the widespread use of an alternative digital currency in Canada. Finally, we discuss the Canadian experience in maintaining cash as an efficient and accessible method of payment and store of value.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation

  Staff Working Paper 2022-33 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen, Jing Yang

  How should central banks design monetary policy in stable times and during recessions? We run a horse race between five monetary policy frameworks in an experimental laboratory to assess how well the different approaches can manage the public’s expectations and stabilize the economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E5, E52, E58

• Cash and COVID-19: What happened in 2021

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-8 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib, Joy Wu, Julia Zhu

  Using data from the Bank Note Distribution System and consumer surveys, we find that bank notes in circulation remained high through 2021. Canadians continued to rely on electronic methods of payment, but a significant share also continued using cash for payments.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• What to Target? Insights from a Lab Experiment

  Staff Working Paper 2021-53 Isabelle Salle

  In a laboratory experiment, we ask participants to predict inflation using three different policy regimes: inflation targeting—with and without greater communication of the target—average inflation targeting and price level targeting. We use participants’ predictions to compare the level and stability of inflation under each regime.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E7

• Cash and COVID-19: The impact of the second wave in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-12 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Marie-Hélène Felt, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Daneal O’Habib, Julia Zhu

  The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the demand for cash. Cash in circulation increased sharply from March through December 2020, particularly in the early months of this period. Although use of electronic methods of payment also increased significantly, cash use for payments remains high for low-value transactions and among certain demographic groups.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54