C6 - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

• Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2007-32 Michel Juillard, Florian Pelgrin

  Since the contribution of Kydland and Prescott (1977), it is well known that the optimal Ramsey policy is time inconsistent. In a series of recent contributions, Woodford (2003) proposes a new methodology to circumvent this problem, namely the timeless perspective solution.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, E, E5, E6

• Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2007-13 David Bolder, Tiago Rubin

  The stochastic simulation model suggested by Bolder (2003) for the analysis of the federal government's debt-management strategy provides a wide variety of useful information. It does not, however, assist in determining an optimal debt-management strategy for the government in its current form.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, C1, C14, C15, C5, C51, C52, C6, C61, C65, E, E6, G, G1, H, H6, H63

• Time-Consistent Control in Non-Linear Models

  Staff Working Paper 2007-3 Steve Ambler, Florian Pelgrin

  We show how to use optimal control theory to derive optimal time-consistent Markov-perfect government policies in nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium models, extending the result of Cohen and Michel (1988) for models with quadratic objective functions and linear dynamics. We replace private agents' costates by flexible functions of current states in the government's maximization problem.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E6, E61, E62

• Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective

  Staff Working Paper 2006-48 David Bolder

  Modelling term-structure dynamics is an important component in measuring and managing the exposure of portfolios to adverse movements in interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1

• Conditioning Information and Variance Bounds on Pricing Kernels with Higher-Order Moments: Theory and Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 2006-38 Fousseni Chabi-Yo

  The author develops a strategy for utilizing higher moments and conditioning information efficiently, and hence improves on the variance bounds computed by Hansen and Jagannathan (1991, the HJ bound) and Gallant, Hansen, and Tauchen (1990, the GHT bound).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, G, G1, G12, G13

• Are Currency Crises Low-State Equilibria? An Empirical, Three-Interest-Rate Model

  Staff Working Paper 2006-5 Christopher Cornell, Raphael Solomon

  Suppose that the dynamics of the macroeconomy were given by (partly) random fluctuations between two equilibria: "good" and "bad."

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, E, E5, E59, F, F4, F41

• The Stochastic Discount Factor: Extending the Volatility Bound and a New Approach to Portfolio Selection with Higher-Order Moments

  Staff Working Paper 2005-2 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, René Garcia, Eric Renault

  The authors extend the well-known Hansen and Jagannathan (HJ) volatility bound. HJ characterize the lower bound on the volatility of any admissible stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices correctly a set of primitive asset returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, G, G1, G11, G12

• An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates

  Staff Working Paper 2004-48 David Bolder, Adam Metzler, Grahame Johnson

  Zero-coupon interest rates are the fundamental building block of fixed-income mathematics, and as such have an extensive number of applications in both finance and economics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1

• Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2002-29 David Bolder, Scott Gusba

  This paper continues the work started by Bolder and Stréliski (1999) and considers two alternative classes of models for extracting zero-coupon and forward rates from a set of observed Government of Canada bond and treasury-bill prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1

• Regime-Switching Models: A Guide to the Bank of Canada Gauss Procedures

  Staff Working Paper 1996-3 Simon van Norden, Robert Vigfusson

  This paper is a user's guide to a set of Gauss procedures developed at the Bank of Canada for estimating regime-switching models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63