C5 - Econometric Modeling
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Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices
The authors test the statistical significance of Pindyck's (1999) suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. -
Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The author proposes a class of exact tests of the null hypothesis of exchangeable forecast errors and, hence, of the hypothesis of no difference in the unconditional accuracy of two competing forecasts. -
The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting
Phillips curves are generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. Linear models of inflation, however, have recently been criticized for their poor forecasting performance. -
Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices
The authors develop simple econometric models to analyze and forecast two components of the Bank of Canada commodity price index: the Bank of Canada non-energy (BCNE) commodity prices and the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price. They present different methodologies to identify transitory and permanent components of movements in these prices. -
A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Government of Canada's Debt Strategy
Debt strategy is defined as the manner in which a government finances an excess of government expenditures over revenues and any maturing debt issued in previous periods. The author gives a thorough qualitative description of the complexities of debt strategy analysis and then demonstrates that it is, in fact, a problem in stochastic optimal control. -
A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy
In this report, the authors examine and compare twelve private and public sector models of the Canadian economy with respect to their paradigm, structure, and dynamic properties. These open-economy models can be grouped into two economic paradigms. -
Testing the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Using Exact Methods
Postulating two different specifications for the Canadian Phillips curve (a purely backwardlooking model, and a partly backward-, partly forward-looking model), the authors test for structural breaks in the parameters of the equation. In each case, they account for the possibilities that: (i) breaks can be discrete, or continuous, and (ii) available data samples may be too small to justify using asymptotically valid structural-change tests. -
Inflation Changes, Yield Spreads, and Threshold Effects
Using interest rate yield spreads to explain changes in inflation, we investigate whether such relationships can be modelled using two-regime threshold models. -
Oil-Price Shocks and Retail Energy Prices in Canada
The effects of global energy-price shocks on retail energy prices in Canada are examined. More specifically, the author looks at the response of the consumer price indexes for gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and electricity in Canada to movements in world crude oil prices.